Heavy rain from thunderstorms caused a flash flood in Carrizo Creek.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms caused a flash flood in Carrizo Creek.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 4:01 PM MST, 59 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 401 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. ..WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE. && .DISCUSSION... WE HAVE SEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING AROUND HEBER- OVERGAARD...SHOW LOW...AND SNOWFLAKE...WITH STEADILY DECREASING COVERAGE TO THE WEST AND NORTH. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN RIM/WHITES MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EARLIER RATHER THAN LATER..ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH STORMS PERHAPS LIMITED TO EASTERN ARIZONA FROM ABOUT MID-WEEK ON. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KFLG- KPAN LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL FAVOR CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA. EXPECT CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS RESULTING IN A MARKED DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...AT AVIATION...MCS FIRE WEATHER...MCS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 409 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-050745- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 409 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL DECREASE THE FLOODING THREAT WITH TIME. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STORMS MAY BE LIMITED TO EASTERN ARIZONA BY MID-WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1141 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 AZZ014-041915- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- 1141 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM MST... AT 1140 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNT...OR 27 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HUNT AND CONCHO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3444 10963 3446 10984 3479 10984 3475 10952 TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 187DEG 12KT 3453 10973 AT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1209 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 AZZ013-014-041945- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- 1209 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO AND WEST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MST... AT 1208 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF VERNON...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHOW LOW... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CONCHO AND LITTLE ORTEGA LAKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3429 10974 3438 10993 3464 10981 3450 10952 TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 210DEG 20KT 3440 10980 AT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1235 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 AZZ008-037-042000- YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- 1235 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM MST... AT 1232 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OAK KNOLL VILLAGE...OR NEAR PRESCOTT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PRESCOTT...PRESCOTT VALLEY...PONDEROSA PARK...YAVAPAI COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...WALKER...IRON SPRINGS...WILLIAMSON VALLEY..INDIAN HILL WEST PRESCOTT...YAVAPAI CAMPGROUND...PRESCOTT GATEWAY MALL...GROOM CREEK SUBDIVISION...OAK KNOLL VILLAGE...PRESCOTT AIRPORT...WHITE SPAR CAMPGROUND...LOWER WOLF CREEK CAMPGROUND AND LYNX LAKE DAM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3444 11235 3444 11257 3474 11262 3473 11225 TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 179DEG 15KT 3452 11246 AT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 212 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 AZZ013-014-016-017-042145- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-WHITE MOUNTAINS-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- 212 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO AND SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MST... AT 211 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SNOWFLAKE...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF SHOW LOW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SNOWFLAKE...TAYLOR...SHUMWAY AND WHITE MOUNTAIN LAKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3443 11023 3460 11015 3454 10983 3429 10995 TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 291DEG 12KT 3449 11011 AT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 AZZ012-015-042200- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM- 230 PM MST SAT JUL 4 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM MST... AT 229 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WUPATKI NATIONAL MONUMENT AND WUPATKI VISITORS CENTER. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LAT...LON 3533 11136 3549 11146 3568 11112 3544 11094 TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 244DEG 22KT 3544 11134 AT
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 108 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
USGS river gauge measured a 5 foot rise in Carrizo Creek near Carrizo between 500 PM and 600 PM MST. The maximum flow reached 2470 CFS in a creek that usually runs less than 100 CFS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596685.