High Surf in Hawaii, July 4 to 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH A MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWER PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES EXPECTED. TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREA.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
NIIHAU. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND BUT THESE ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE FOR SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
THEM. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WITH THE EXPECTED
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH THE
TRADE WINDS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE SELECT LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU AND THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ARE MONITORING A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. A SHORT PERIOD OF SEA
BREEZE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL TAF SITES
BEFORE THE TRADES KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PHNY WHERE MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOU SEAS WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS.

THE NEW SOUTH SWELL IS A BIT BIGGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SWELL WILL LOWER GRADUALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE SOUTH
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE
SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY SURF TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-MOLOKAI-
LANAI MAKAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG
ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...JELSEMA