Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flash flooding across northern Arizona.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flash flooding across northern Arizona.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 9:58 AM MST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 958 AM MST SAT JUL 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLOW MOVEMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. DEW POINTS GREATER THAN 50F EXIST ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. OBSERVED AND GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) INDICATES AROUND 0.75 INCHES IN THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. THAT IS UP FROM 0.60 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PW VALUES GREATER THAN AN INCH ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER, NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS GENERALLY NOT BEEN OVERRUN BY EXTENSIVE, THICK CLOUD COVER. IN FACT, THE LEAST CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTHERN ARIZONA - WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE BIGGEST INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH HEATING TODAY, MODIFIED OBSERVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WILL DEVELOP, WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. FINALLY, MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES POINT TO AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. HI-RES MODEL DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA MATCHES WILL WITH THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS. THESE MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINS WITH HEATING AROUND NOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A PAGE...FLAGSTAFF...SHOW LOW LINE WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN COCONINO, YAVAPAI, NORTHERN GILA AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTIES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION /327 AM MST/...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN DRIER AIR BEGINS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW...FEWER STORMS...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE XPCTD DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES AND LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE REST OF NO. AZ. XPCTG STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO DCRS BTWN 07-10Z SUNDAY. ISOLD TO SCT IFR CONDS ARE XPCTD WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 17Z THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-016- 018-037-038. && PUBLIC...RR/MCS AVIATION...TC FIRE WEATHER...MOTTICE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 407 AM MST SAT JUL 18 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-190600- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 407 AM MST SAT JUL 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN GILA, YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ON MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 1-888-745-1637.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 155 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:03 UTC.
8 heavy rain, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A rain gauge along Interstate 40 recorded 2.32 inches of rain between 1000 and 230 PM MST.
Heavy rain fell over the Schultz Fire scar. Weatherford Canyon had a flash flood that closed Schultz Pass Road with debris and rocks. A rain gauge in the area recorded 2.15 inches of rain.
Half an inch of rain was reported in 15 minutes (from 445 to 500 PM) in Timberline neighborhood in far east Flagstaff.
The Prescott ASOS recorded 2.70 inches of rain fall in three hours.
A spotter 10 miles southeast of Congress reported 4.65 inches of rain in an hour and a half.
A spotter 3 miles northwest of Prescott reported 2.75 inches of rain in two and a half hours.
An inch of rain fell in one hour in Yarnell.
Flash flooding closed two roads in southern Yavapai County just north of Wickenburg.
An inch of rain fell in in Yarnell in an hour.
Five roads were closed in Chino Valley because of flash flooding. A vehicle was stranded at Road 5 North and Reed Road. The fire department was able to rescue the occupants and a tow truck pulled the vehicle out.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597778, 597777, 597776, 597783, 597779, 597782, 597780, 597784, 597781, 597785.