Arizona, 2015

Drought in Arizona, February 1 to 28, 2015

February 1 to 28, 2015 · NWS TWC · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Extreme drought (D3) conditions continued across far northeast Pinal County and a portion of west central Graham County during February.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Extreme drought (D3) conditions continued across far northeast Pinal County and a portion of west central Graham County during February.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:35 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 9:35 PM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN TONIGHT. AFTER A COOL DAY AREA WIDE IT WILL BE
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WIDESPREAD RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EVENT OF THE
PAST TWO DAYS IS WINDING DOWN. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING
FOR LESS ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXTENDING FROM SW NM INTO CENTRAL BAJA CA. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SSE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ENERGY OFF NRN BAJA CA COAST
DROPS S. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT...AFTER THE TWO DAY WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT...WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ERODING
OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE AREAS THAT WILL BE BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HARD TO
PINPOINT THE LESS THAN ONE MILE VISIBILITY AREAS...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE PATCHY AREAS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR OBSERVATIONS.

WARMER SUNDAY WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 050-070 AGL WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LCL MVFR CONDS NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS
SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVERAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
20-FT WINDS GENERALLY BE ELY-SLY AT 5-15 MPH. SOME EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across parts of far northeast Pinal and west central Graham Counties, including the Santa Teresa Mountains, through February. Less than a quarter inch of precipitation fell in the extreme drought area. Soil moistures dropped slightly, to between the 70th and 75th percentiles. However, upstream runoff from late January heavy precipitation caused levels at San Carlos Reservoir to climb to about 16 percent of capacity by the end of February, the highest levels since September 2010.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across parts of far northeast Pinal and west central Graham Counties, including the Santa Teresa Mountains, through February. Less than a quarter inch of precipitation fell in the extreme drought area. Soil moistures dropped slightly, to between the 70th and 75th percentiles. However, upstream runoff from late January heavy precipitation caused levels at San Carlos Reservoir to climb to about 16 percent of capacity by the end of February, the highest levels since September 2010.

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When
February 1, 12:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Extreme drought (D3) category persisted across parts of far northeast Pinal and west central Graham Counties, including the Santa Teresa Mountains, through February. Less than a quarter inch of precipitation fell in the extreme drought area. Soil moistures dropped slightly, to between the 70th and 75th percentiles. However, upstream runoff from late January heavy precipitation caused levels at San Carlos Reservoir to climb to about 16 percent of capacity by the end of February, the highest levels since September 2010.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 557067, 557068, 557069.