A strong storm system began to move across Arizona on December 11th. This brought increasing pressure gradients and wind across the state.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A strong storm system began to move across Arizona on December 11th. This brought increasing pressure gradients and wind across the state. The strongest winds were observed north of the Mogollon Rim.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 11, 9:56 AM MST, 3 hours 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 956 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA...EXPECT SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WITH WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLDER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... MINOR UPDATE EARLIER THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS BEFORE THEY EVENTUALLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINING A WATCHFUL EYE ON PRECIP/WIND TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY CHANGES BECOME NEEDED TO OUR HEADLINE PRODUCTS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION /506 AM MST/....WINTER IS ON ITS WAY. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL HEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. FOR TODAY...THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA AND MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTION OF ARIZONA BY THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER TO ARIZONA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALREADY INCREASED INTO THE 50 KNOT RANGE AROUND 10-12KFT MSL THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY WHERE THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 55 MPH. SOME BLOWING DUST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS FALLING AS LOW AS 4500 FEET BY SATURDAY. THE BEST UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE 2 TO 5 RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ON SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN RESPONSE TO A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS ARIZONA. FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE SECOND IN THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO ARRIVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF ARIZONA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHES INTO EASTERN ARIZONA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 2000-2500 FEET. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. DRYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...A DRY BUT COLD AIR MASS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INFLUENCE THE DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CLOUD CIGS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVER COCONINO AND WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. AFTER 00Z SAT...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHRA/SHSN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ011>014-016-017-040. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ016>018. && PUBLIC...KD/TC AVIATION...BOHLIN FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 641 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-120630- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 641 AM MST FRI DEC 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY DEVELOP EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. IN ADDITION...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTY ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET FROM 6 PM MST THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING. THE TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THAT AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR MORE DETAILS...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF AND CLICK ON YOUR AREA TO SEE IF YOUR AREA IS INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH AN INCH OR LESS FROM 4000-6000 FEET. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES...AND FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH UP TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET. IF TRAVELING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...EXPECT WINTER DRIVING. COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A SECOND AND COLDER SYSTEM SHOULD BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW A GOOD POSSIBILITY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES OR BY CALLING THE NWS FLAGSTAFF AT 1-888-745-1637.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The winds gusted over 58 MPH at the St Johns Airport between 115 PM and 235 PM MST. The peak wind gust was 62 MPH at 115 PM.
A peak wind gust of 63 MPH was reported at Petrified Forest National Park at 143 PM MST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 605742, 605743.