Blizzard in Alaska, December 13, 2015

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
502 AM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A STRONG LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE MON THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE SOUTH EAST WILL MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO FORT YUKON
BY 3AM MON WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ALASKA RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE BERING SEA LOW.

SURFACE... A VERY DEEP 930 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING
SEA WILL MOVE TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND 3AM TUE WEAKENING TO 970
MB...AND TO THE FAR EASTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA 3PM TUE WEAKENING
TO 980 MB. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION MOVING TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 3PM
SUN...TO NOME AND UNALAKLEET BY MIDNIGHT SUN...AND TO KOTZEBUE
SOUND 6AM MON BECOMING QUITE WEAK. THEREAFTER SEVERAL TROUGHS IN
THE COLD AIR SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER WILL ROTATE OVER THE NORTH
BERING SEA AND NORTON SOUND THROUGH TUE. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST.

NORTH SLOPE...COASTAL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ADDING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO THE SPOTTY
FLURRIES. A PUSH OF WARMER AIR NORTH FROM THE BERING SYSTEM WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS TOO WARM FOR LOW WIND CHILL CONCERNS. IT APPEARS
THE BERING SEA OCCLUSION WILL NOT HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO BRING
SNOW INTO THE AREA.

WESTERN ALASKA...EAST WIND INCREASING THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST...ALSO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA. EXPECT HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER FAR WESTERN LOWER YUKON VALLEY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE NULATO HILLS. IN THE NOME AREA...WILL LEAVE THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IT APPEARS THE BEST CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TOO
MUCH. TO THE NORTH...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR THE
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MON...BUT SNOWFALL WILL BE MUCH LESS NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA MOUNTAINS SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT TOO
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
KOBUK VALLEY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE LOW.

ALTHOUGH ICE COVERS A LARGE AMOUNT OF NORTON SOUND AND THE NORTH
BERING SEA...WE EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS WILL BREAK UP THIS
RELATIVELY RECENTLY FORMED ICE. AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LATER MON AND TUE OCEAN LEVELS WILL RISE FROM THE STORM
SURGE WITH THE BERING SEA LOW...UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVELS. SO
THE ICE COULD BE PUSHED OR CARRIED ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM
SCAMMON BAY TO NEAR SAINT MICHAEL...AS WELL AS FROM NOME TO
SHAKTOOLIK...ALSO ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH ICE TO DAMPEN WAVE ACTION MOST AREAS OTHER THAN THE BERING
STRAIT WHERE HIGH SURF MAY DEVELOP.

INTERIOR...GOES SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LAST NIGHT. THE BERING SEA
OCCLUSION MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT BRING SOME INCREASE IN WIND IN
CHANNELED AREAS AND ACROSS SUMMITS WHICH WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE CLOUDS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
LATER TODAY...RIDGING TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE GAP WINDS THROUGH
ALASKA RANGE PASSES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 50
MPH. THEY WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER MON BUT RETURN ON TUE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE ALASKA RANGE ESPECIALLY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ211.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240.
&&

JL DEC 15