A surge of relatively warm air aloft and an upper level front brought a few inches of powdery snow to portions of southern Wisconsin during the morning rush hour. Numerous slide-offs and accidents occurred mainly along the Interstate 94 corridor.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
A surge of relatively warm air aloft and an upper level front brought a few inches of powdery snow to portions of southern Wisconsin during the morning rush hour. Numerous slide-offs and accidents occurred mainly along the Interstate 94 corridor. The poor road conditions were a contributing factor in a fatal accident in Kenosha County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 9:03 PM CST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 903 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 .UPDATE... THE SNOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING RAPIDLY ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND GENERATES SOME FAIRLY DEEP WARM ADVECTION. ISENTROPIC SATURATION AND UPGLIDE IS IMPRESSIVE AND THIS ROLLS INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT DIMINISHES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AS THE FOCUS STAYS FARTHER WEST. RADAR RETURNS ARE DECENT...LOOKING A LITTLE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE NEW NAM IS KICKING OUT ABOUT .10 TO .15 IN LIQUID AND THE HRRR ISN/T FAR OFF THAT. THE CURRENT PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS MAY BE THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROLLING IN. IT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE IS NEARLY SURFACE BASED AND STRETCHES TO ABOUT 7KFT. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW IT MAY WARM A BIT OUT OF THIS ZONE ALOFT...BUT ONLY BY A FRACTION OF A DEGREE. SO...SHOULD SEE SOME BIG FLAKES AND DRY SNOW. TIMING LOOKS ON TARGET. THE INITIAL RADAR RETURNS AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE INITIALLY VERY DRY. EXPECT THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO REACH MADISON BY 1 AM AND MILWAUKEE BY 2 AM...SNOW FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN MOSTLY EXIT TO THE EAST. TEMPS HAVE BASICALLY HIT THEIR BOTTOM. NOW THAT THE WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED...THEY SHOULD STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW FROM ABOUT 06Z TO 12Z TUE MORNING...THEN MVFR CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...UNDER 10KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014/ TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THEY ALSO AGREE WITH A 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING INTO THE AREA...STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND A PASSING BUT SOMEWHAT SHEARED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WENT WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TUESDAY...RAMPING UP BEFORE AND DOWN AFTER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA...WITH AROUND OR UNDER 1 INCH TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD DROP ONLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS EVENING...WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEPING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS TRYING TO KEEP LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE NAM LEAVING LIGHT QPF IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER MODELS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH QPF. LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND TUESDAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO BRING IN SOME UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...BUT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...THEN DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY IN PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY E-SE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAIN SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF WI TUE NGT...HOWEVER AREA GETS CLIPPED FOR A TIME BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 3H JET. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC OMEGA ON GFS 290 THETA SURFACE ALSO JUST CLIPS FAR SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10MB WITH 25- 30KTS OF UPGLIDE. CONSIDERING RESURGENCE IN COLUMN MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...WILL BE BUMPING UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA WITH 528 THICKNESS OVER THE AREA...LEANING TOWARD SNOW LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 15 TO ONE. HENCE THINKING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL AFFECT SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA. CIPS ANALOGES SHOWING HIGH PERCENTAGES FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF NEW SNOW. MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LINGERING INTO WED DUE TO WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NGT. LATEST VSBL HI RES IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER EXTENDING WELL OUT TO NEAR MID-LAKE. GLERL ESTIMATING OVER 90 PERCENT OF LAKE MI COVERED BY ICE. EVEN WITH THIS EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTED IN -SHSN OVER SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WED NIGHT SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE THROUGH 4K FEET WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW. DELTA-T AROUND 16C. ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHSN WED NGT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND BACKS TO THE EAST ON THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROF. HENCE TRENDED TOWARD DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF STRONGER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN THE EARLY PERIODS. THOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING NOT THAT STRONG...ENOUGH LIFT AND COLUMN MOISTURE TO WARRENT KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND IN VICINITY OF PASSING TROUGH. MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP AS A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER FLIRTING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS. MORE RELIABLE ECMWF CONTINUES MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND CARRIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF WI BY SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERN WI REMAINS ON NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXCEPT FOR CANADIAN GUIDANCE...GFS AND ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO THE SOUTH OF WI. HOWEVER WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY UNTIL WINDS WEAKEN SAT NGT. WEEKEND PUSH OF COLDER TEMPERATURES APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE WILL USHER WARMER MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS BACK TO WI FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIP MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARMUP AS WELL. CPC 8 TO 14 DAY 500MB OUTLOOK AND GFS 5-DAY 500MB MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEERING FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MORE INTRUSIONS OF MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE FREEZING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE FAVOR A GRADUAL SNOW MELT. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO MADISON AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z TUESDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LINGER FOR A 4 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT...AROUND 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH PER HOUR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON...WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TOWARD KENOSHA. VISITILITIES WILL BE AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...WITH CEILINGS AROUND OR ABOVE 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. MARINE... THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN ICE COVERED...AS WELL AS A GOOD PORTION OF THE OPEN WATERS. THUS...ANY WAVE ACTION WILL BE LIMITED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && UPDATE...DAVIS TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 305 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-042115- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 305 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS FOND DU LAC...SHEBOYGAN...BERLIN AND MONTELLO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A SECOND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED BUT SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED. LMZ643>646-042115- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 305 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX MBK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Around 2 inches of powdery snow during the morning rush hour.
Two to three inches of powdery snow during the morning rush hour.
Two to three inches of powdery snow during the morning rush hour.
Two to three inches of powdery snow during the morning rush hour.
Two to three inches of powdery snow during the morning rush hour.
One to two inches of powdery snow during the morning rush hour.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter Weather, Kenosha | 2014-03-04 | 20 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Indirect |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, March 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 492474, 492475, 492476, 492477, 492478, 492479.