Rip Current in Guam, March 4, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
523 PM CHST MON MAR 3 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI IS CENTERED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS
NEAR 12N149E AND HAS COMMENCED A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. PGUA
SHOWS PERIPHERAL SHOWERS FROM FAXAI OVER THE MARIANAS WATERS.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NORTH WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
REGION. RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG BUOYS INDICATE SWELL AND WIND WAVES
ARE BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN AS FAXAI TRACKS EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWER CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH FAXAI CONTINUE TO PASS
THROUGH MARIANAS WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT AS FAXAI MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO GUAM AND
ROTA...THEN EARLY TUESDAY FOR SAIPAN AND TINIAN. A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN WILL RESUME TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS IN A MODIFIED DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE MARIANAS IN THE WAKE
OF FAXAI. A TROUGHING PATTERN MAY RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK
THAT MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE...
RITIDIAN AND TANAPAG BUOYS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASING SEAS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS A DIRECT EFFECT FROM TS FAXAI. PRIMARY
SWELL DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL
SHIFT AGAIN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
FAXAI MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST. FAXAI IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE
NORTHEAST SWELL DIRECTED AT THE MARIANAS. THIS COULD PROLONG THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE TO
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TS FAXAI BEGAN ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD ACCELERATION EARLIER TODAY.
FAXAI WILL PASS WELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
EFFECTS FELT ON GUAM. HOWEVER...SAIPAN AND TINIAN WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO THE CENTER LATE TONIGHT AND WILL EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAN GUAM BUT SHOULD NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS GIVING MAJURO SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND
PATTERN WILL MOVE INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM FAXAI REMAINS THE
PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA.
FAXAI IS NOW PICKING UP SPEED AND MOVING NORTHWARD...DRAGGING
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT. AS A RESULT...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI THIS EVENING
WITH THE CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING.
KOSRAE REMAINS ON THE VERY EDGE OF THE EFFECT OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM FAXAI. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO KOSRAE
AND POHNPEI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN EASTERN MICRONESIA IS THE HAZARDOUS SURF
OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELLS
GENERATED BY AN EARLIER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF JAPAN WILL
KEEP HIGH SURF ON KOSRAE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SAME SWELL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAJURO AS WELL. THE LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE LAGOON AT MAJURO. THIS ADDITION
OF WATER TO THE LAGOON HAS A MUCH SMALLER EXIT POINT WITH LESS
WATER ABLE TO EXIT THE LAGOON THAN IS ENTERING FROM THE NORTH. AS
A RESULT...THE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP RESULTING IN
COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG THE LAGOON SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
EFFECT WILL BE WORSE WITHIN 2 HOURS OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDES WILL
OCCUR NEAR 545 PM THIS AFTERNOON...600 AM AND 615 PM LOCAL TIME
TUESDAY.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET IN POHNPEI
WATERS. THE SEAS ARE A RESULT OF THE WIND WAVES BEING PRODUCED BY
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI AND THE LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF AT POHNPEI THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING SURF TO DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER WESTERN
MICRONESIA THIS AFTERNOON. FAXAI IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE NORTHWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF FAXAI HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DECREASE OVER CHUUK STATE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER
CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON. CHUUK WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLOUD COVER STEADILY DECREASING OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER YAP AND KOROR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ENTRAINED INTO CHUUK STATE AS FAXAI MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH
AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE FIELD IS DEVELOPING IN THE STORMS WAKE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER CHUUK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO KOROR ON SATURDAY.
DECIDED INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER KOROR FOR SATURDAY...BUT KEPT
SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET IN CHUUK WATERS.
THE SEAS ARE A RESULT OF THE WIND WAVES BEING PRODUCED BY
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI AND THE LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF AT CHUUK THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY ALLOWING SURF
TO DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

WILLIAMS/KLEESCHULTE