Winter Weather in Wisconsin, January 18, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014

.TODAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWING VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ND...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT MOVES FROM SRN MN THIS MRNG INTO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTN.  SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE THIS MORNING...WITH
NOD TO MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.  700H CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST WI CORNER AROUND 18Z.  THICKNESS AND COBB ESTIMATES OF
SNOW LIQUID RATIO FAVOR AROUND 20 TO 1 VALUES...AND WITH QPF AROUND
TWO TENTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH IN MY FAR SOUTHWEST...SOME 3-4 INCH
SNOWFALLS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA.

MODERATE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSES ACROSS THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE AREA RAPIDLY THIS AFTN.  GFS VALUES REACH -20
TO -30 IN THE MID-LAYERS THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE BUT BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL WITH A
PERIOD OF SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.  ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY POSTING WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR
LAFAYETTE...GREEN AND IOWA COUNTIES FOR TODAY.  SNOW AMOUNTS DROP
OFF RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS EXPECT A SHARP GRADIENT.  MADISON
SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 1.0 WITH THAT INCH EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO
AROUND KENOSHA.  LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTN SO A FEW
HOURS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BUT WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES SOUTH.

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR THE VERY LIGHT SNOW TO BE RAPIDLY ENDING IN
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY
EAST FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE OH VALLEY. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR BRIEFLY BUT
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN CANADA
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
QUICKLY INTO WI OVERNIGHT.  MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD RAPIDLY IN
DURING THE EVENING.  WL KEEP TEMPS MILDER BUT IF MORE CLEARING
DEVELOPS...TEMPS LIKELY TO BE COLDER THAN ANTICIPATED. MAY BE SOME
FLURRIES SHAKEN OUT OF THE MID-CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL SATURATION REMAINS MINIMAL SO WL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION FOR NOW.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE
NORTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
SHOULD PULL SOME MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES AS A FEW SHORTWAVES ROLL THROUGH. THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AT THIS TIME THAT MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW. NONE OF THE WAVES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PRODUCE MUCH SNOW...MAYBE AN INCH AT MOST.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL
WAVES TO CHANGE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
LOWER AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG AS -SN SPREADS IN FROM THE
WEST. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LIKELY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SURGE
OF WARMER AIR AND BRISK WEST WINDS.  WIND GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 25
KNOTS...SO WL BE POSTING SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATE TNGT INTO SUN
AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ062-067-068.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV

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