Washington, 2014High Wind in Washington, January 10 to 11, 2014
January 10 to 11, 2014 · NWS SEW · 4 events in 4 counties and zones
Prefrontal southeast high winds occurred on the coast and over the north interior. This was the first of three separate high wind episodes.
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 4
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Prefrontal southeast high winds occurred on the coast and over the north interior. This was the first of three separate high wind episodes.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 9, 9:28 PM PST, 21 hours 46 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 9, 9:28 PM PST, 21 hours 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
928 PM PST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
AREAS OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NEXT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FINALLY A DEEP LOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS. A WEAKER WARM FRONT
WILL BRING MORE RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO W WA TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST AND STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
OF SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE COME INTO PLAY
WITH RADAR SHOWING MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION IN THE RAIN SHADOW
OF THE OLYMPICS. 20-40 KT W FLOW ALOFT AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CASCADES TONIGHT WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 4
AM ADDRESSES THIS ISSUE.
THE MAIN EVENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT W WA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM CONSISTS OF THREE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THAT PERIOD. OVERALL RECENT COMPUTER MODELS HAVE
BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A LITTLE.
FIRST A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CHANGING
TO RAIN STARTING AROUND MIDDAY. THE NAM HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO DO THE SAME. NO WIND YET.
THE NEXT FEATURE IS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN REACH THE COAST. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL BRING THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD BAND TO THE N COAST WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF 12Z...THEN
BLOW IT QUICKLY E OVER E WA BY 18Z. THE 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF-GFS
ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT. BOTH THE NAM/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE
THE FRONT BURIED SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUD BAND BASED ON
THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST AND NEAR OR JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS ELSEWHERE. WINDS
COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH ALONG THE COAST TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
SO A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.
THE THIRD FEATURE IS THE TRAILING SURFACE LOW WHERE THE BENT-BACK
OCCLUSION HAS WRAPPED UP. MODELS HAVE GAINED CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING
THE LOW E JUST N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 983 MB TO 988 MB OVER VANCOUVER AROUND 00Z.
THE LOW SHOULD HAVE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING COAST
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD GENERATE
HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR ARE LESS
CERTAIN BUT STILL POSSIBLE. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE WHIDBEY
ISLAND ADMIRALTY INLET AREA AND POSSIBLY EVERETT. THE W TO E TRACK
OF THE LOW ALLOWS THE PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET TO TRACK RIGHT DOWN
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z WRF-GFS SHOWED A
SLIGHT S COMPONENT TO THE LOW TRACK AND INDICATED 50 KT 925 MB WINDS
IN THE EASTERN STRAIT AND ACROSS ADMIRALTY INLET LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WINDS ALOFT UP TO 900 MB
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL PROBABLY END UP GETTING WINDS
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE OF 25-39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. HIGH
WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THESE AREAS...JUST LESS LIKELY.
THERE MAY BE A MINOR LULL IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND
WHEN THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RISE ABOVE PASS LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RAIN IS HEAVIEST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN FALL RAPIDLY BELOW PASS LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE MOUNTAINS ENDING 15Z
SATURDAY WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH MAY END UP BEING 2 TO 4 INCHES.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH A FOOT OR MORE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
ALREADY UP FOR THIS.
THE STRONG WINDS WITH THE LOW WILL ALSO WHIP UP A LARGE SWELL TRAIN
THAT WILL REACH THE WA COAST. SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AFTER ALL THIS...ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MORE RAIN. KAM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...WEAKER FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL BRUSH THE REGION SUN THROUGH TUE WITH A BROAD FLAT
DIRTY UPPER RIDGE NOSING BACK OVER THE WEST COAST. HARD TO SAY
WITHER THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ENOUGH TO GIVE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOG...CLOUDY DRIPPY WEATHER WITH A LOT OF STRATUS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS LIKELY FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...DISCUSSION FROM THE 3 PM AFD...RAIN WILL FALL OFF AND
ON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL NOT BE HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.
HOWEVER A JUICY SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS ONE IS LIKELY
TO BRING HEAVY RAIN. THE PERIOD 00Z-12Z SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS
VERY WET. SUMMED OVER THE 24 HOURS 18Z FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY THE
TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE 2-3 INCHES IN THE CASCADES AND 3-4
INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS. THERE WILL ALSO BE 1-2 INCHES IN THE
LOWLANDS. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY THE SNOW LEVEL FALLS QUICKLY AND
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW.
THESE AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY ENOUGH TO BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO
FLOOD STAGE ON SATURDAY. OTHER FLASHY RIVERS COULD ALSO TOUCH FLOOD
STAGE...INCLUDING THE BOGACHIEL...STILLAGUAMISH...TOLT...AND
PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING. A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. ANY FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BE MINOR. ONE EXTRA BIT OF
CONCERN IS THAT AFTER A COLD AND SNOWY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW
LEVELS RISE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MORE RAIN IS FORECAST...SO RIVERS THAT
ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY MAY RISE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. BURKE
&&
.AVIATION...MODERATE W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN WA TONIGHT...BECOMING
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND A WARM FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WRN WA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
BENT-BACK OCCLUSION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST AT ALL
LEVELS AND STABLE.
RAIN HAS TRANSITIONED TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING RESULTING IN MAINLY
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE
FLOW. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WITH MORE WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY...MAINTAINING MVFR CONDITIONS.
KSEA...SW WIND 12-18 KT GUSTING 30 KT THIS EVENING...THEN EASING TO
6-12 KT FRIDAY. THE TERMINAL WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN SHADOWED TONIGHT
BUT STEADY RAIN WILL REDEVELOP LATER FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
DTM
&&
.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. GALES WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT...AND MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE N INTERIOR WATERS. THE NRN PORTION
OF ADMIRALTY INLET WILL GET SOME OF THESE OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE
ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT RESULTING IN NWLY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT W-SW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS OF 15-30 KT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE WITH
A LULL EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT.
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING STRONG BENT-BACK OCCLUSION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGH-END GALES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES FOR THIS EVENT.
SWELLS OF 12 TO 15 WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 18 FT FRIDAY...AND THEN MORE
DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT EVENING. COMBINED SEAS WILL
EVENTUALLY REACH 26 TO 32 FT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF AROUND 18 SECONDS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT
VERY HIGH...BUT THE SIZE AND ENERGY OF THE WAVES WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME COASTAL FLOODING IN OCEAN SHORES AND WESTPORT. A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
A WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DTM/MCDONNAL
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL CASCADES
TONIGHT.
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT COASTAL WATERS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST ENTRANCE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND PUGET SOUND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.
GALE WATCH ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTMLHigh Wind, Admiralty Inlet Area
- When
- January 10, 7:14 PM PST to January 11, 12:56 AM PST
- Where
- Admiralty Inlet Area forecast zone
- Measured
- 36 kt (41 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- ASOS
Numerous reports of sustained wind or gusts in the high wind category were reported, from the KNUW ASOS, from a mesonet location in Port Townsend, and from the Keystone ferry dock.
High Wind, Western Whatcom County
- When
- January 10, 11:01 PM PST to January 11, 3:00 AM PST
- Where
- Western Whatcom County forecast zone
- Measured
- 36 kt (41 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Mesonet
A CWOP site near Bellingham recorded 40-42 mph sustained wind with a gust of 59 mph.|The windstorm caused a tree to crash through the roof of a mobile home on Emily Dr. east of Bellingham, in the morning hours Saturday.
High Wind, Western Skagit County
- When
- January 11, 12:10 AM PST to 2:10 AM PST
- Where
- Western Skagit County forecast zone
- Measured
- 35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- Department of Highways
A state department of transportation sensor recorded 40 mph sustained wind.
High Wind, Central Coast
- When
- January 11, 12:53 AM PST to 12:53 PM PST
- Where
- Central Coast forecast zone
- Measured
- 37 kt (43 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- ASOS
The ASOS at KHQM recorded 43 mph sustained wind off and a peak wind of 63 mph.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Winter Weather in New Jersey, January 10, 20142 deaths · 555 injured · 15 events
- Winter Weather in New York, January 10, 2014363 injured · 7 events
- Winter Weather in Delaware, January 10, 201413 injured · 2 events
- Winter Weather in Virginia, January 10, 2014$100,000 · 2 events
- Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, January 10, 20142 injured · 13 events
- Winter Weather in Virginia, January 10, 201425 events
- Winter Weather in New Jersey, January 10, 20143 injured · 1 event
- Winter Weather in Wisconsin, January 10 to 11, 201420 events
- Flooding and Heavy Snow in Idaho, January 10 to 11, 2014$15,000 · 78 kt wind · 7 events
- Winter Weather in Maryland, January 10, 201415 events
- Winter Weather in West Virginia, January 10, 201410 events
- Dense Fog in Maryland, January 10 to 11, 201410 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 485188, 485189, 485186, 485182.