Heavy Snow in Washington, February 16 to 17, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON
AS WELL AS A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA TUESDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN WA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS UP FOR THAT WHERE GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALTHOUGH THE OLM-BLI PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF WHAT IT GOT UP TO YESTERDAY
EVENING...STRONG WINDS IN THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN IN SOME LOCATIONS AND GIVE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS UP FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND WINDY WEATHER IS ON TAP.
THE PRECIP WILL TURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME SUNBREAKS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MIGHT MOVE THROUGH WRN WA AROUND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OR WE MAY JUST SEE A SURGE IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY FALL AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD DROP BELOW 1000 FEET. ONSHORE
FLOW MAY KEEP SNOW FROM FALLING ANYWHERE NEAR THE WATER BUT LOW
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OUGHT SO SEE SNOW SHOWERS. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK FOR A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NOT MUCH RAIN FELL THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN
OLYMPICS AND THE SKOKOMISH RIVER HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE AROUND 3 AM.
HOWEVER IT IS STILL LESS THAN A FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE. MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD
DRIVE THE SKOKOMISH ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT. A FLOOD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER.

CURRENT FORECASTS CALL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN IN THE OLYMPICS ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF THE SKOKOMISH RIVER FALLS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME MONDAY...IT IS LIKELY TO KEEP FLIRTING
WITH FLOOD STAGE UNTIL THURSDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THURSTON...LEWIS...AND GRAYS
HARBOR COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ON RIVERS THERE. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL FLOOD PATTERN FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF
RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE MINOR RIVER FLOODING THERE. THE MAIN CONCERN
IS FOR THE LOW ELEVATION CHEHALIS RIVER BASIN...WHICH INCLUDES THE
NEWAUKUM AND SKOOKUMCHUCK RIVERS. THE DESCHUTES AND EVEN THE UPPER
COWLITZ RIVERS WILL ALSO BEAR CLOSE WATCHING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
STORM BRINGING ANOTHER 1 TO 2.5 INCHES TUESDAY.

RIVERS SHOULD BEGIN RECEDING AROUND THURSDAY AS A DRIER PATTERN
DEVELOPS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...WITH STABLE CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER AS CLOUDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKE THEIR WAY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING CIGS TO DROP INTO
MVFR CONDITIONS AS EVENING APPROACHES AND REMAIN THERE BEFORE
BEGINNING TO RECOVER VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30 TO 40
KNOTS AT ALL BUT KCLM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER JUST A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING AT OR AROUND 3K FT. THIS DIP LIKELY TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN
23Z AND 01Z...AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO RISE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REACH SPEEDS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ALOFT A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT
WITH 50-60 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2000 FEET
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SMR

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE INLAND WATERS HAVE COME UP...BEGINNING TO
REACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WHILE SEEING SOME GALES OUT ON
THE COAST. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN AT PACE...OR IN
THE CASE OF THE INLAND WATERS...TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
THAT SAID...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND LOOK TO BE COVERING THE MATTER WELL. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT ON STARTING TO DIMINISH THE WINDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS ALONG THE COAST
APPROACHING 20 FEET AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT INTO TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES...ARRIVING ON TUESDAY...LOOKS WEAKER THAN THE
WEEKEND SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING COAST THIS EVENING.
     WIND ADVISORY INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.
     WINTER STORM WARNING OLYMPICS AND CASCADES.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON...THURSTON...LEWIS...GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES.
     FLOOD WARNING SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY.

PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL STRAIT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH BAR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML