High Wind in Oregon, February 16 to 17, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
259 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIND...HEAVY RAIN...AND PLENTY OF CASCADE
SNOW. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING SIMILAR WEATHER TUESDAY. A MUCH COOLER
AND SHOWERY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MAINTAINED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MUCH LESS THOUGH THAN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...AND MOST AREAS HAD BRIEF POCKETS OF SUNSHINE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT PUT AN
END TO THESE MOMENTS OF SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT ARE JUST OFFSHORE THE WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST...WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
SHORTLY BEHIND. THESE FRONTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 975MB SURFACE LOW
THAT IS JUST OFFSHORE OF WESTERN CANADA. THE SURFACE LOW IS
INFLUENCED BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT DOES NOT
HAVE THE SAME TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
HAD...BUT HAS STRONG ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND CASCADE SNOW.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE WITH THE PASSING OF
THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
SOME BLOCKING AND COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS STILL SOME
EVIDENCE OF THIS AND WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
WINDS AT THE COAST. DO NOT EXPECT THE EXTREME WINDS THAT WERE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY AT THE HEADLANDS...BUT A LONGER PERIOD OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES MORE PRONE TO
HIGHER WINDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY. THE WINDS
LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY...BUT THINK COMBINED WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES...DOWNED TREE LIMBS...OR
OTHER WIND IMPACTS AND DECIDED EARLIER TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE VALLEY.

THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN COAST AND COAST RANGE EXPECTED TO GET AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE CAN
SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW THERE
IS ONLY ONE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THE PUDDING RIVER NEAR
AURORA...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY THE RAIN AND WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OTHER RIVERS TO FLOOD.
WE WILL BE MONITORING THE RAIN AND RIVERS CLOSELY DURING THIS EVENT.

THE CASCADES WILL GET A HEALTHY DOSE OF SNOW TONIGHT AND MAINLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES...AND CLOSE TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THERE WILL BE LESS SNOW FOR THE LANE COUNTY
CASCADES BUT STILL EXPECT 5 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
AROUND 3500 FEET TO THE NORTH AND 4500 FEET TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
DROP AROUND 1000 FEET EARLY MONDAY. THOSE TRAVELING OVER THE CASCADE
PASSES MONDAY SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SHOWERS WILL LESSEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...BUT
WESTERLY 850MB WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
CASCADES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DO NOT THINK THE SW WASHINGTON
CASCADES WILL GET MUCH OF A BREAK IN SNOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE
NEXT.

THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND WIND TUESDAY. THE WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE COAST AND COAST
RANGE...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL TAP BACK INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A 130+KT JET
STREAK MEANS THAT NW OREGON WILL GET ANOTHER HEAVY SOAKING. LUCKILY
THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND LIMIT FLOODING
CONCERNS...HOWEVER ANY STALLING OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN MORE
RIVER FLOODING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAISE SNOW LEVELS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER JUST ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FEET. SHOWERS WILL DWINDLE DURING
THIS TIME AND DO NOT INITIALLY EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...SERIES OF WAVES WILL BRING BURSTS OF
LOW-LEVEL SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HARTLEY

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DRIER PATTERN BEGINS
NEXT WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BB

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT IN THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER
ACROSS THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AFTER 00Z. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 14Z-
16Z MONDAY MORNING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. FRONT MOVES INLAND BY 00Z MON...BRINGING INCREASING RAIN
AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K-3K FT. SOUTH WIND GUSTS 35-40 KT EXPECTED
THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 12-14Z MON. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND HIGH END MVFR CIGS PREVAIL MON. /27

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANOTHER COASTAL JET IS ALSO
FORMING OVER THE INNER WATERS...WITH SOUTH WIND GUSTS NEARING 40
KT AT BUOY 029 THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING GUSTS 50+ KT FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WHILE GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL LIKELY FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

SEAS CURRENTLY 15 TO 18 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 20 FT
BY THIS EVENING. SEAS MAY EASILY REACH 22 TO 25 FT LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 20 FT MIDDAY MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS...ALBEIT WEAKER...WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE THE
RULE RATHER THAN THE EXCEPTION FOR THE MOST PART...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS 35 TO 40 KT POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP SEAS WELL ABOVE 10 FT FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY PUSHING 20 FT AT TIMES.
JBONK/NEUROCKMANEZ

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE

     COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF
     WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-CENTRAL OREGON
     COAST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST
     OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER COLUMBIA-NORTH
     OREGON COAST-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
     OREGON CASCADES-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
     CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
     VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST
     RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COAST RANGE OF
     NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
     SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
     GORGE-WILLAPA HILLS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR GREATER VANCOUVER AREA.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
     CASCADES.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM
     PST MONDAY.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.

&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.