A warm front was lifting northward through the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states in advance of a strong cold front and intensifying upper trough. This pattern allowed unseasonably warm air from the Gulf of Mexico to be brought northward into the region in advance of the front.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A warm front was lifting northward through the southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic states in advance of a strong cold front and intensifying upper trough. This pattern allowed unseasonably warm air from the Gulf of Mexico to be brought northward into the region in advance of the front. Widespread heavy rain showers and even a few thunderstorms spread into the region during the afternoon and evening. However, one area of thunderstorms across the southern Shenandoah Valley became severe during the late evening hours producing wind damage in eastern Rockbridge county, especially near Buena Vista, where several trees were blown down.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 23, 10:43 PM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1043 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF US OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A WARMUP FOR MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STORM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MIDWEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO A WHITE THANKSGIVING FOR SOME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1020 PM EST SUNDAY... SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS FASTER AND THIS WAS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 18Z LOCAL WRF. WILL DRY THINGS OUT FASTER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...WITH MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTING A SMALL 1-3 HOUR WIND OF DRIZZLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT LEAVING BEHIND SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 8H. WILL JUST SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE WINDS...THE CORE OF THE 8H JET IS OVERHEAD AND THE FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH THEN SSW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ENDING TIME FOR 1 AM STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE NOT REALLY HAD ANY GUSTS OVER 50 MPH...THOUGH THE TAZEWELL MIDDLE SCHOOL WEATHERBUG SITE DID SHOW A 60 MPH GUST EARLIER. TEMPS HAVE BUMPED UP IN SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT AS WEDGE DISSIPATES. THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS LIMITED SO REMOVED IT AS RAIN MOVING OUT SOON. DRY SLOT AND CLEARING IS PROBLEMATIC BUT THINK THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE INTO SE WV AND PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND TN/NC BORDER AREA WILL SEE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS BANKED INTO THE BLUE RIDGE A LITTLE WHILE...AND POINTS EAST. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL 500H TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR MONDAY TO START THE WORKWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY MILD MONDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES OF 565-570DM AND 850H TEMPERATURES AROUND PLUS 10C SUPPORT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY... WITH GFS SOLUTION A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 338 PM EST SUNDAY... ON MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL PATTERN THIS TIME FRAME IS FOR SPLIT FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. BORDER AND SOUTHERN STREAM THAT HAS A STRONG SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF LONG WAVE TROF FROM POSITIVE TILT TO NEGATIVE TILT AND AMOUNT OF PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO JET STREAMS WILL IMPACT THE RESULTING TRACK OF THE GULF TO EAST COAST SURFACE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME SPREAD IN DIFFERENT MODELS IS LARGE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH THE TIMING BUT MUCH LOWER WITH THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BE LEANING TOWARD BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AS SUGGESTED BY WPC. MODELS SHOW MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 170 KNOT UPPER JET BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...THEN TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ONCE THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DETERMINED...TEMPERATURES WILL INFLUENCE WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. EVEN TAKING THE COOLER MET/SREF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SURFACE VALUES MAY STILL BE TOO WARM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT RAIN. HAVE USED PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES...MAINLY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF TO PLACE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. LOOKED AT PROBABILITY FOR SNOW AND CORRELATION WITH PAST ANALOG EVENTS. APPEARS THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION. SINCE WEDNESDAY IS A MAJOR TRAVEL DAY WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EST SUNDAY... THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH THE AFTERMATH OF WHAT UNFOLDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THERE STILL IS GENEROUS UNCERTAINTY IN THOSE EVENTS...THE EVENTS AFTERWARDS ARE EQUALLY CHALLENGING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LOW/TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST HEADS NORTHEAST...AND MAKES WAY FOR THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM TO ENTER OUR REGION. THE PAST FEW DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS TRANSITIONED THIS SYSTEM FROM A SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM INTO ONE THAT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THAT TREND CONTINUES TODAY. OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PRIOR DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE HIGHLIGHTS HERE ARE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADD A TOUCH OF A WARMING INFLUENCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN EACH MODEL CONCERNING THAT FEATURE. WHAT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IS THE TIMING...TRACK AND SPEED OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW THAT MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE PLACED THE GREATEST FORECAST WEIGHT ON A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT OFFERS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 650 PM EST SUNDAY... WINDS...RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT. THINK THE DECENT RAIN WILL BE EXITING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES/BLF/LWB...AND LYH/DAN AFTER 07Z. WITH IN SITU WEDGE IN PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING AND STRONG LLJ...WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LVL WIND SHEAR WHICH ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AT ALL SITES. OVERNIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER LEFTOVER MOISTURE CAN LEAD TO FOG...BUT THINK WITH SOUTH TO SSW WINDS APPEARING TO STAY UP WILL BE LIMITED IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR THOUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SEEING DRY SLOT INTO AL/GA MAY BRING VFR CIGS OR EVEN SCATTERING THEM OUT IN BLF BY DAWN. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO KEEP VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS WITH 10-15 KT SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WIND WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD BUT LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW IN THE TAFS GIVEN SUCH AN ACTIVE FIRST 12-18 HOURS. CONFIDENCE FOR SUB VFR THROUGH TONIGHT IS HIGH...BUT LOW ON TIMING OF IFR VS MVFR WITH RESPECT TO CIG/VSBY...AGAIN FLUCTUATIONS WILL OCCUR BASED ON RAINFALL INTENSITY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER MONDAY WITH RETURN TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A SMALL WINDOW IN THE MORNING OF MVFR. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT....WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CIGS IN THE MTNS...WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUB VFR AT ALL SITES. LOOKS LIKE FLIGHTS WILL BE IMPACTED GREATLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. AROUND HERE LOOKS LIKE WE WILL EXPERIENCE SUB VFR AT LEAST WED INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE LOWER CIGS AT BLF/LWB. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 215 PM EST FRIDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL PARTS ARRIVE TO REPLACE THE SENSOR. UNTIL THEN THE VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE REPORTED WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS STAFFED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009. NC...NONE. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ042. && SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS/WP NEAR TERM...KK/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...KK/WP EQUIPMENT...RAB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 354 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 VAZ007-009-WVZ042-241100- TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER- 354 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE FAR NORTHWEST SIDE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001>004-018-019-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ043-044-507-508- 241100- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE- PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH- ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY- SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 354 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION... INCLUDING SNOW AND SLEET...FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ005-006-020-VAZ044>047-058-059-241100- ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX- BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 354 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 834 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-015-016-240345- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-SMYTH-GRAYSON-CARROLL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON... BOONE...WILKESBORO...MARION...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP... TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX 834 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 ...LOW VISIBILITIES AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING... BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY...AND FOOTHILLS...INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH LATE EVENING. WATER WILL BE PONDING ON THE ROADS...SO HYDROPLANING WILL BE AN ISSUE. IN ADDITION...FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL NEED TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO GET TO THEIR DESTINATION...AND SLOW DOWN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 105 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:54 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Rockbridge County 911 Center reported that a tree was down on U.S. Route 663 or Tye River Road.
The Buena Vista City 911 Center reported that a tin roof was blown off the back part of a house on Burch Avenue landing in the alley behind the home. This event occurred just east-southeast of the city. Another tree was down on Longhollow road on the northeast side of the city.
The Rockbridge County 911 Center reported that a tree was blown down onto Irish Creek Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, November 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 550296, 550297, 550298.