Drought in Texas, January 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1133 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAM OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BE SHUNTED EAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHES
SOUTH. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHLY VARIABLE CEILINGS RANGING
FROM AS LOW AS IFR AT 600 FEET TO VFR AS HIGH AS 12000 FEET.
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND INTO NEW YEARS DAY. BELIEVE AS THE TROUGH AND JET
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN A SHORTER DURATION AND LESS
OCCURRENCES OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF RAIN IS DECREASING AND IS NOTED JUST OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AREAS WHICH ALSO LEADS TO SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING. TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING CIGS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...KBRO RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MOVING
STEADILY NORTHEAST OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TX. THE LOWER RGV
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THE
SURFACE MARINE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEX. WV SATL
IMAGERY MAINTAINS A PRETTY STEADY SUPPLY OF DEEP LAYER PACIFIC
MOVING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW AND THIS SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST CLEARS THE REGION LATER
TOMORROW FINALLY CLEARING THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST.
THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALS THAT SOME DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY BE
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE ATMS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE VFR CEILINGS INITIALLY IN THE RGV TAFS. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC FOR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAINTAINING IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING PERIOD WHILE THE
GFS GOES WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE WORST AVIATION CONDITIONS
PREVAILING TOMORROW MORNING. THE PESSIMISTIC NAM SOLUTION LOOKS A
BIT OVERDONE ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE 500 MB TROUGH CLEARS THE REGION. SO WILL GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS AND THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FOR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013/

SHORT TERM /NEW YEARS EVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT IS
WHETHER RAIN WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO HAS
DEVELOPED AND THIS MAY BE PULLING SOME OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT SEEN MORE
THAN A TRACE OF RAINFALL WITH THE RECENT LIGHT RAIN AT MOST OF THE
ASOS SITES THIS AFTERNOON...SO AM RELUCTANT TO GO WITH MOS POPS
TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A 0.01 OF AN INCH SOMEWHERE TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST NEW YEARS
DAY INTO WED NIGHT AS THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO EASTWARD. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
NAM AND GFS MOS FOR HIGHS NEW YEARS DAY AND LOWS WED NIGHT. WILL GO
WITH A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AS
NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW
TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 70S.

THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THE
ECMWF FAVORS A DEEPER AND STRONG FRONT BUT TIMING IS REASONABLE
BETWEEN THE TWO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE ON SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BUT LEFT MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH
NORTH WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEDNESDAY EVEN WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH WED NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH
TEXAS LATE WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATER THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND SEAS SUBSIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY. STREAMER SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

TXZ248>257-011100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
405 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-011100-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
405 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR HIGH SEAS. ALL COASTAL WATERS TO SEE SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADVERSE
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.