Drought in Texas, January 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1122 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Skies remain clear at 05z outside of a few high clouds over the
Hill Country. I do not foresee low clouds developing across the
CWA overnight, although the SREF is hinting a low probabilities of
MVFR ceilings across the I-10 corridor. This will be something to
watch overnight. Otherwise, expect light south winds in most areas
with gusts at or above 15 kts possible at KSWW and KABI after 06z.
Winds will veer to the southwest by 16z and increase, with gusts
of 20-25 kts through Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will move
into the Big Country during the afternoon and should arrive at
KABI around 23z. This front will make rapid progress to the south,
clearing the southern portion of the CWA by 04z. Winds may be
gusty behind the front owing to the strong isallobaric field.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Sensible weather impacts will be minimal through the next 24
hours. Skies will remain generally clear with a persistent south
to southwest wind. Winds may gust overnight at KABI due to the
interaction of the low-level jet and the topography south of I-20
but the other forecast terminals should see sustained winds less
than 10 kts. Winds will back to the southwest, increasing to 12-16
kts, with gusts exceeding 20 kts at times, by mid/late morning,
continuing throughout the day. A cold front will move into the Big
Country by late afternoon and should affect KABI sometime near or
just before 00z. It will move across the area Wednesday evening,
but this is beyond the scope of the current TAF package.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The warming trend, which has begun today, will continue through the
next 24 hours, with clear skies for our area. With stronger winds
and higher dewpoints, temperatures will not drop off as much
tonight, and expect overnight lows to be anywhere from 5-15 degrees
warmer than what occurred last night. The coldest readings will be
in the river valleys, sheltered and low-lying areas mainly in our
eastern and southern counties.

Pleasant weather conditions are in store for New Year's Day, with
sunny skies and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 60s for
afternoon highs. Low-level southwest winds and downsloping will aid
in this warming. Winds will be somewhat gusty on Wednesday during
the late morning and afternoon hours, across the central and
northern part of our area, including at San Angelo, Brownwood,
Abilene and Sweetwater. A cold front will push south into our far
northern counties by late afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

A dry cold front will continue south across the area Wednesday night
and will bring considerably cooler weather to West Central Texas for
Thursday. We will see mostly sunny skies on Thursday with afternoon
highs mainly in the mid and upper 40s, with a few readings in the
lower 50s across southern sections. Surface ridge shifts east of the
area Thursday night with winds becoming light southerly overnight.
Mostly clear skies and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall
into the mid and upper 20s, with a few lower 20s possible in the
cooler river valleys and low lying areas.

Lee trough develops Friday into early Saturday with breezy south to
southwest winds developing. Expect a warming trend with highs on
Friday in the mid and upper 50s and highs on Saturday reaching the
lower 60s. The next cold front is expected to arrive Saturday night
ahead of a large upper trough that materializes across the Central
and Northern Plains. As the upper trough moves east, a strong
surface high and arctic airmass is progged to dive south across the
Plains early next week.

Still seeing some considerable model differences regarding how cold
of an airmass makes it into the area but given latest guidance,
temperatures were lowered Sunday through next Tuesday. Temperatures
by next Tuesday may not make it out of the 30s and lower 40s and
this may be too conservative if the GFS is correct. The GFS does
develop some QPF over the area next Tuesday as a weak disturbance
approaches. Will keep a dry forecast going for now but this will
need to monitored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 38  65  27  46  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 	 35  68  29  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction 	 31  66  32  52  23 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-012030-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
229 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.