A potent shortwave trough ejecting eastward over New Mexico combined with the southwestern fringe of an arctic airmass to produce heavy snow over portions of the Western Low Rolling Plains in West Texas.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A potent shortwave trough ejecting eastward over New Mexico combined with the southwestern fringe of an arctic airmass to produce heavy snow over portions of the Western Low Rolling Plains in West Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 1, 11:29 PM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
Clouds and precipitation are developing across southeast New Mexico
and parts of the Permian Basin this evening. Expect this trend to
continue with cigs lowering to IFR and LIFR levels shortly. FZRA and
PL will transition to -SN by mid morning at KHOB and KMAF. Precip
will remain light at other terminals. Skies will begin to clear by
late afternoon as the storm system moves off to the east.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
We have updated the forecast to extend south and westward the
Winter Weather Advisory that was issued earlier. There is quite a
difficult weather scenario unfolding for tonight into Sunday as
models having trouble with precipitation developing behind a
strong cold front moving through the area. Models are in good
agreement with an upper trough moving across west Texas Sunday
bringing wintry precip, but the main concern is where and what
p-type will it be. Lightning strikes are being observed in
northern Mexico so despite this being an open upper trough, it is
potent. A significant warm layer aloft exists which will have to
be eroded before snow can arrive. Certainly all precip will start
as rain or freezing rain, but the timing of the transition will
greatly determine ice/sleet/snow amounts...not to mention the
arrival of subfreezing temps changing rain to freezing rain. Much
of the area will see mostly rain, freezing rain, and sleet with
the precipitation ending tomorrow before the warm layer is fully
eroded. Ice accumulation totals near I-10 and I-20 will be around
one tenth of an inch with more sleet seen between I-20 and US 180
stretching from Hobbs to Snyder with amounts to near 1/2 inch
possible. There may be an abrupt shift of p-type near US 180 with
1 to 3 inches of snow possible. The highest snowfall totals will
probably be in the Snyder area with a secondary maxima possible
near Seminole and Hobbs. The Midland-Odessa area will see mainly
freezing rain and sleet with a late change to snow possible near
noon Sunday if the precip has not pushed east. Confidence in this
forecast is lower than normal due to model uncertainties but it
appears there will be some travel difficulties tomorrow due to
this winter weather situation.
Hennig
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Complicated aviation forecast ahead as low cigs and wintry precip
will develop later tonight. We should see a few more hours of VFR
conditions before IFR and eventually LIFR cigs develop over the
area. This low stratus will develop in response to strong lift as
a storm system moves across W TX and SE NM. Precip in the form of
freezing rain, sleet and snow will also develop mostly across the
Permian Basin after 06Z. Most of the precip should end by 18Z
Sunday with the low cigs breaking up shortly thereafter.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Sat Feb 1 2014/
DISCUSSION...
Messy forecast in close with accumulating ice likely across the
western Low Rolling Plains of west Texas overnight and into
Sunday. Elsewhere expect much colder temperatures through the next
several days as a surge of polar air moves across west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico tonight...with a reinforcing surge of cold
air Wednesday and increasing chances for mixed precipitation late
in the workweek.
Polar front at press time looks to be oozing southwestward, from just
east of Denver City to Stanton to north of St. Lawrence. The cold
air behind the front is being modified both via insolation and
sensible heat release from relatively warm soils. Just before
sunset when the PBL collapses, we expect the front to surge
southwestward and through the forecast area before sunrise Sunday.
Aloft, a digging and intensifying short wave trough presently over
southern California is forecast by a consensus of model solutions
to pass more or less directly overhead by 18Z Sunday.
Fortunately for us, it appears the system is a bit moisture
starved, as low level return flow from the Gulf of Mexico is
lacking. Nevertheless, sufficient mid and high level moisture will
accompany this system, while deep layer ascent ahead of the trough
will induce warm isentropic upglide above the frontal inversion
this evening over the northern Permian Basin east across the
western Low Rolling Plains. BUFR soundings from across this area
show the column moistening up by midnight, but also show a warm
nose off the surface. This warm nose aloft will be sufficient to
melt snow falling from above, then as the rain falls through the
polar air close to the surface, a transition from rain to freezing
rain is expected by midnight. Accumulating ice will be mitigated
somewhat by a warm ground; however, with cold air advection
continuing through the overnight hours, bridges and overpasses
will likely freeze over, with ice accumulating on power lines and
tree branches as temperatures fall into the 20s. Look for freezing
rain to change over to sleet and then to light snow by afternoon
roughly north of I-20 from Stanton through Colorado City. Our best
guess at this point has total ice accumulations of around a tenth
of an inch, with a worst-case scenario of up to a quarter of an
inch of ice, especially over Scurry County where ingredients could
favor higher amounts. Stay tuned.
Elsewhere, across the remainder of west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico, the interplay of lift, moisture, and temperatures doesn't
favor a significant accumulation of ice or snow. Super Bowl Sunday
will be a cold one with brisk northeast winds and cloudy skies.
Skies will begin to clear from west to east Monday with the departure
of the upper level storm system. We'll expect a warmup into Tuesday,
but another reinforcing shot of polar air is expected to arrive
sometime on Wednesday, followed by an increase in wintry precipitation
chances late in the work week as another upper level short wave trough
takes aim at the southern High Plains.
Given the complexity and potential impacts of ice across the
western Low Rolling Plains, we've focused our attention to this
immediate threat and have left the forecast from Tuesday onwards pretty
much as is. Pertaining to the grids, we've tried a few new techniques
today, such as hourly Wx grids changing with PoP, QPF, and T. We
also used a 70% conversion from water to ice after midnight, with
an increase to 90% Sunday morning. These techniques along with
coordination from national and local offices are quite useful in
complex situations like what we're going to see overnight into
Sunday.
And no, the prairie dog will not see his shadow tomorrow morning.
It'll be too cold to get out of the warm burrow to even bother to check.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 27 34 21 45 / 70 40 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 29 32 20 43 / 70 70 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 37 44 30 56 / 40 20 0 0
DRYDEN TX 40 48 28 50 / 10 30 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 31 40 29 54 / 20 30 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 30 40 25 52 / 20 20 0 0
HOBBS NM 26 38 23 47 / 70 20 0 0
MARFA TX 35 51 20 54 / 10 20 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 27 35 19 45 / 60 70 10 0
ODESSA TX 28 36 21 48 / 50 60 0 0
WINK TX 34 42 24 52 / 40 30 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
Southern Lea County.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Scurry...
Winkler.
&&
29/10HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 955 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-030400- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 955 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014 /855 PM MST SAT FEB 1 2014/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
The public reported 4 to 6 inches of snow, 10 miles east of Gail.
The Dawson Sheriff's Office reported 3.5 to 4 inches of snow in Lamesa.
The public reported 5.5 to 6 inches of snow, 4 miles south of Fluvanna.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 486360, 486359, 486361.