High Surf in Hawaii, February 2 to 5, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN FEB 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. A
WEAK FRONT OVER MAUI COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR MAUI OR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRIEFLY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND DRAPED
ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR MAUI OR THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FAR TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PIECE OF
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER KAUAI AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS AS THAT IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE.

A SURFACE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
AND TURN OUR WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AT THIS TIME THE OLD
FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED JUST WEST OF KAUAI BUT BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BAND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT MAY ONCE AGAIN
STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN
THE WEEK. THUS PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK THOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
SOMEWHERE ACROSS MAUI OR THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY. AS A
RESULT...AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAUI
COUNTY. THIS AIRMET MAY BE NEEDED THERE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...SINCE LOW CLD/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. AN
AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
LATER TODAY IF LOW CLD/SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM OAHU ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS
IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL CATEGORY. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST SWELL AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL EXCEED THE 10 FOOT
ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM HST MONDAY FOR
KONA-KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM HST MONDAY
FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...HOUSTON