Flash Flooding in South Carolina, July 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SURFACE MESOLOW WAS STILL LOCATED OVER
COASTAL SE GA...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD 850 MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO CIRCULATED ABOUT THESE
FEATURES AND ONSHORE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS FOCUSED ACROSS SC COUNTIES
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN I-95 AND 1-26. BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND
ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AREA...ADDITIONAL/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS COMPARED WITH THE STRONGER
CAP IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BASED JUST BELOW 600 MB PER THE 12Z KCHS
RAOB...WILL TRANSLATE TO DEEPER MOIST UPDRAFTS/A GREATER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PWATS CLOSE TO 1.75 INCH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ECHO TRAINING WITHIN NW-SE BANDS WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ELEVATED DOWNDRAFT CAPES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT GREATER
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED HERE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER..THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GREATLY ALTER HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...
AND CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 80S MANY
AREAS...PERHAPS IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ALONG COASTAL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A GOOD BET. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED AND CONVERGENCE PROGS
ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARING. A
SOLID TREND INTO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT
LOOKS LIKE QUITE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE WITHIN THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. PWATS WILL STEADILY
RISE AND WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WELL DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE BEST COVERAGE AND MOISTURE FEED WILL
BE JUST TO THE EAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS THAT JUST BRUSHES FAR EASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVERNIGHT TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES FAVORING THE COASTAL WATERS. ONE OF MORE DAY OF
UPPER 80S SEEMS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD DOWN BY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AND APPEARS
TO BE THE HEART OF THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE DEEP TROUGH
ALOFT WILL SHARPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOVING THROUGH. PWATS
INCREASE FURTHER AND SURGE TO IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE ACTIVE PERIOD...LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY WHAT PRECISE TIME PERIODS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IT LOOKS WET.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS...ABUNDANT FORCING...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND
10 KNOTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN. IN FACT...WPC
QPF FORECASTS ADVERTISE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUTED THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LINGERING DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE AREA
FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ATLANTIC
RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN FROM THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A MUCH MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE AND OVER KCHS
AT LEAST UNTIL 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE KSAV
VICINITY AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN CONTINUE OVER OR
NEAR KCHS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS COULD PERSIST IN THE
KCHS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT KSAV...AFTER DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THE NEXT ROUND OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD FIRE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. OUTSIDE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS COULD INCREASE AT KCHS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AND THERE ARE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ACROSS SC WATERS...A GRADIENT ENHANCED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED ONSHORE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...NOT FAR FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. ACROSS GA
WATERS...A WEAKER GRADIENT CLOSE TO LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE WATERS
AND EVENTUALLY INLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SWINGING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND. THE GRADIENT MAY
TIGHTEN AT TIMES AND ALLOW FOR MODEST WIND INCREASES...BUT OVERALL
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>052-010745-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
TIDAL BERKELEY-
333 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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