High Surf in Oregon, January 11 to 12, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND NOW A SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED AS FAR INLAND AS OBRIEN...AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE WEST SIDE...GENERALLY
WEST OF MEDFORD. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS HAVE HAD SNOW ALL
DAY...ABOVE 5000 FEET. NOW THE SNOW LEVELS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND
4000 FEET AND LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 NEAR CHEMULT AND
CHILOQUIN ARE REPORTING SNOWY ROADS...AND WEBCAMS AT INTERSTATE 5
AT SISKIYOU SUMMIT AND HIGHWAY 140 AT LAKE OF THE WOODS ARE NOW
SHOWING SNOWFLAKES FLYING. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN QUICKLY THIS
EVENING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES AT NPWMFR FOR THE CONTINUING SNOWFALL.

SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER ON SUNDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE CASCADES DUE THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

WIND IS THE OTHER BIG PLAYER IN THE STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND WIND SPEEDS WILL PEAK
THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH...THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT. ANY GUSTY WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BLOW SNOW
AROUND AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHWAY 97 NEAR CHEMULT AND AREAS NORTH.

QUIETER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE MONDAY...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT SOME
FOG WILL FORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT
THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOG COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL WAIT
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. I HAVE RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS MONDAY AND HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING STRONG UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS MEANS WARM AIR ALOFT WITH
SUNNY SKIES VARYING DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS OVER THE EAST SIDE. IT ALSO MEANS A
RETURN TO VALLEY INVERSIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF VALLEY FOG, STRATUS, AND PROBABLY AIR STAGNATION.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY ALLOW A PACIFIC SYSTEM TO COME ASHORE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE TOOLS, MODEL TRENDS, AND ENSEMBLES ALL LEAD TO
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. MY HUNCH IS THAT I
WOULDN'T BET ON THE RIDGE GOING AWAY JUST YET. KEPT POPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND NEAR CLIMO WEST OF THE CASCADES AND LOW TO NIL ON THE EAST
SIDE UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER READ ON IT. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS MORNING.
COLDER AIR IS NOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT CIGS AND VIS COULD DROP TO IFR WITHIN ANY OF THE
SHOWER CORES. IN ADDITION, INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND UMPQUA. POTENTIAL
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER FURTHER SOUTH (KMFR),
BUT IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THUNDER THREAT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SIDE TODAY EXPECT A
PERIOD OF ESPECIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, MODERATE RAIN, AND
MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS AND VIS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE. THERE WILL ALSO BE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE WITH SOME SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY, AND THUNDER
THREAT IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOIST NW FLOW,
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE NEARLY TOTAL TODAY, ESPECIALLY N-S
ORIENTED RANGES. -WRIGHT

&&

.MARINE...A MIX OF VERY STEEP WIND WAVES AND STEEP SWELL WILL
BRING CHAOTIC SEAS THIS MORNING. HEAVY WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MIX OF VERY STEEP WIND
DRIVEN SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING WEST SWELL WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF CHAOTIC AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 23 TO
30 FEET THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT BUT WIND WAVES
WILL LOWER. THE HEAVY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO IMPACTS FROM WINDS AND SEAS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A COLD AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OFFSHORE AND PERSISTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS TO THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE IN THE WEEK...ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ022.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     ORZ021.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 2500 FEET
     FOR FOR ORZ025.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR
     FOR ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ027-028.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET
     FOR FOR CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ310-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM
     PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT FOR
     PZZ350-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370-376.

NSK/TRW/TRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
01/11/2014  M1.40 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. MULTIPLE ROLLS OF THUNDER OVER PAST HOUR.

&&

BPN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
513 PM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N CAVE JUNCTION       42.19N 123.65W
01/11/2014  M1.25 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0511 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
01/11/2014  M1.15 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SVEN