High Wind in Oregon, February 11 to 12, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
905 PM PST TUE FEB 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE INCOMING FRONT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL MARK
THE BEGINNING OF A VERY WET AND AT TIMES WINDY PERIOD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OREGON AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS
HEADLINES ARE OUT FOR WINDS (PDXNPWMFR) AND EXPECTED RIVER RISES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (PDXESFMFR). FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALSO OUT
FOR THE COQUILLE FOR LATER THIS WEEK. THE PACIFIC FIRE HOSE, WHICH
EXTENDS BACK TO HAWAII, IS NOW AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FILLING MANY
GAUGES OVER THE COMING DAYS. AN UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UPWARD A
BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT FOR THE AFTERNOON. WE PROBABLY CATCH A
BREAK VERY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PATTERN
RELOADS OVER THE PACIFIC. BUT MULTIPLE WET SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO
MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. SPILDE

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG FROM APPROACHES THE OREGON COAST AND A
LOW LEVEL COASTAL JET FORMS. THERE IS CONCERN FOR WIND SPEED SHEAR
FOR KOTH AND KRBG. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING AS A FRONT BRINGS RAIN INTO THE AREA. A
MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IS EXPECT WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INLAND VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING
LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN WILL BE PARTLY
OBSCURED THIS EVENING BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATION. EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS 20-30
KTS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KLMT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...VERY STRONG WINDS AND STEEP, HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODELS SHOW A
COASTAL JET DEVELOPING AROUND CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD WITH 925MB WINDS
BETWEEN 70-75 KTS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF PORT ORFORD.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY WHILE SEAS BECOME SWELL DOMINATED
AND REACH A PEAK. A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES OF FRONTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
IMPACTING THE WATERS ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY BE SIMILAR IN STRENGTH
TO OR STRONGER THAN THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM PST TUE FEB 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...11/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

WE HAVE PROGRESSED FROM THE RIDICULOUSLY RESILIENT RIDGE TO THE
REPEATEDLY RAINY REGIME. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THAT WILL CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MEDFORD CWA...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
WHEN A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ONSHORE.  EACH SHORT
WAVE WILL BE TAPPED INTO LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...AT TIMES THE
IVT WILL SURPASS 750 KG/M/S...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
RESULT. GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND THE CASCADES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COMMENCE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OFF AROUND 6000 FEET BUT WILL RISE TO 7000 TO
9000 FEET AS THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES. THEREFORE...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WINTER WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS. HOWEVER...THE COPIOUS
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO RELATIVELY MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. NOT WORRIED ABOUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING YET...BUT
THAT MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ON THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK.

IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WINDY...AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL BE WINDY AS WELL.

THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT BUT IT
WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA AND REALLY WON'T CLEAR
OUT COMPLETELY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN...LIFTING IT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS
LOW AS 4500 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE
FRONT IS IN CALIFORNIA...BUT THERE WON'T BE MUCH PRECIPITATION IN
THAT AREA AT THAT TIME. WHEN THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH THERE WILL
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND WIND THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THAT FRONT WILL ALSO STALL OVER THE AREA...SO IT WILL
REMAIN RAINY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN THE CYCLE WILL REPEAT WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY, FEB 15TH THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FEB 19TH AND
BEYOND.

THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS THAT WILL BE BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY STILL BE
WITH US ON SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ON SATURDAY, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FRONT WILL, INDEED, ARRIVE AND FINALLY
RETURN SNOW LEVELS TO BELOW 7000 FEET, MOST LIKELY TO BETWEEN 3000
AND 5000 FEET ON SUNDAY MORNING.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID TO STRONG GALES
IS EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE
PLUME/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FLOWS INTO THE CURRY COUNTY COAST AND
COASTAL MOUNTAINS. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
SATURDAY, ALONE, ACROSS CURRY COUNTY ARE LIKELY BE 2 TO 5 INCHES,
WITH LESSER, BUT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ON SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF ALL OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
IN SUCH A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY PUSH SOME COASTAL
RIVERS, ESPECIALLY THE COQUILLE, TO FLOOD STAGE. THERE IS ALSO SOME
CONCERN FOR ACTION STAGE TO BE REACHED ON THE CHETCO. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY, AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY, SO, WHILE SNOW IS
EXPECTED, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT AND BELOW PASS
LEVELS.

THE MODELS SHOW AN OVERALL BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST
THE MODELS FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 6500 FEET. AT
THIS POINT, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SNOWPACK BELOW 7000 FEET WILL
REBUILD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL REBUILD AT MID ELEVATIONS.
BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ORZ030-031.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ310.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

MAS/BTL/MAP/JRS