Ahead of the most significant winter storm of the season, a lead shortwave induced cyclongensis along a stalled surface boundary located across central South Carolina and Georgia. As the low tracked northeastward, snow spread across southeastern North Carolina.
Every event with a place to put it; 20 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Ahead of the most significant winter storm of the season, a lead shortwave induced cyclongensis along a stalled surface boundary located across central South Carolina and Georgia. As the low tracked northeastward, snow spread across southeastern North Carolina. Three to four inches ended up falling across Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, Sampson and Wayne counties. Amounts quickly dropped off further north and west, with a trace to 2-3 inches falling as far north as the US Highway 64 corridor and nothing elsewhere.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 10:19 AM EST, 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1019 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY... AS OF 15Z PRECIPITATION (SNOW) HAS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A SW- NE ORIENTED BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS APPEARS TO BE FILLING IN /SLOWLY SATURATING THE DRIER AIRMASS/ IN PLACE ACROSS RANDOLPH...CHATHAM...WAKE...WILSON... NASH...AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS TREND...AND INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR 0.05- 0.10" OF LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHATHAM...WAKE AND WILSON COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT TO NO PRECIP AT ALL JUST SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DEVELOPING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1100 AM THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHATHAM...WAKE AND WILSON COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION (1/2" TO 1") CANNOT CURRENTLY BE RULED OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SNOW ACCUMULATION IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE SC BORDER. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT CENTRAL NC WILL BE HIT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE GENERAL SETUP FOR THIS STORM WILL CONSIST A STRONG HIGH SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY...WITH CLASSIC CAD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS COLD AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE WESTERN US INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT AND AMPLIFY INTO NEARLY CLOSED OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING/DEEPENING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...AS MUCH 150 MILES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN THE TREND OF PARTIAL THICKNESSES TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. THE GFS IS THE COLDER OF THE MODELS...SHOWING A LOW TRACK THAT REMAINS FULLY OFFSHORE. THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OR JUST INLAND...WITH THE INTENSE WARM ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW DRIVING A WARM NOSE MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN THE GFS. WPC PREFERS A LOW TRACK BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF...BASICALLY HUGGING THE COASTLINE. AS SUCH...THERE ARENT MANY CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE PTYPE DISTRIBUTION IN THE FORECAST. WE EXPECT PRECIP TO START AS SNOW AND SLEET AT ONSET FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME....GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING. THE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP REMAINING MOSTLY SNOW IN THE TRIAD WHILE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN ALL RAIN...EAST OF I-95. IN THE MIDDLE...WITHING 40 MILES OR SO ON EITHER SIDE OF US HWY 1...THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DOMINATE PTYPE. SNOW AND SLEET SHOULD TREND TOWARD MORE FREEZING RAIN WITH TIME WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT POSSIBLE BANDING AND ENHANCED PRECIP RATES WILL LIKELY DRIVE SOME OF THE PTYPE CHANGES AS WELL. THESE DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY AT 48 HOURS. EVEN LESS CERTAIN IS WHO WILL GET HIT WITH THE TAIL END OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN INTENSE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE WEST-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE GFS WOULD GIVE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY 18Z THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. BASED ON QPF AND NOMOGRAM BASED PTYPE CHANGES...WE SNOW TO RANGE FROM GENERALLY 4-6 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE) TO MORE LIKE 2-4 INCHES NEAR US HWY 1. ICING WILL BE THE BIG STORY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHERE A QUARTER TO EVEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND WHILE THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SOME DEGREE...IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL HAZARDS AND POWER OUTAGES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY... FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD... NOT OVERLY COOL OR WARM... AND MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS VERY LATE FRI OR FRI NIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY FLATTENS OVER OUR REGION FRI BEHIND THE DEPARTING DEEP TROUGH... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE GULF/DEEP SOUTH AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FRI WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AN AMPLIFYING WAVE DROPPING INTO THE BROAD ERN US TROUGH BASE SWINGS THROUGH NC FRI NIGHT ACCOMPANIED AT THE SURFACE BY A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT... AND THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH GENERATE A SWATH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... SO WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER COOL BUT MODIFYING SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE MIDSOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SAT... AND EXPECT FAIR SKIES WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS. THE FLOW FLATTENS AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SUN/MON. THE ECMWF TAKES YET ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS VA/NC PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP OVER OUR AREA SUN... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH... KEEPING US DRY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW FOR SUN/MON. THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN/MON... WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 655 AM TUESDAY... VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. AT INT/GSO/RDU... CURRENT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH... AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. AT RWI... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING... BUT OVERALL EXPECTED VFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY AT FAY... WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY... WITH MVFR VSBYS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z AT FAY WITH SNOW EXITING THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WED MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY... AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WED AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRISK GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NE AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY WINTRY PRECIP (MOSTLY SNOW/SLEET AT INT/GSO... SNOW/SLEET CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT RDU... AND MOSTLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT RWI/FAY) CAN BE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THU MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THU AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THU EVENING AND NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FRI/SAT. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ042- 073>078-083-084. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ007-021>025-038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ008>011-026>028-043. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ085-086- 088-089. && SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...HARTFIELD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 723 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 NCZ042-073>078-083-084-121200- JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- 723 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NCZ007-021>025-038>041-121200- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH- CHATHAM-WAKE- 723 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NCZ008>011-026>028-043-121200- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON- 723 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NCZ085-086-088-089-121200- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 723 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
927 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 AM SNOW FORT BRAGG 35.14N 79.00W
02/11/2014 M0.0 INCH CUMBERLAND NC PUBLIC
DUSTING OF SNOW ON ROOFTOPS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. SNOW
BEGINNING TO STICK ON THE GRASS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1400507
VINCENTPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
939 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0920 AM SNOW RAEFORD 34.98N 79.22W
02/11/2014 E0.0 INCH HOKE NC PUBLIC
SNOW STARTING TO ACCUMULATE
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1400508
BLAESSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 951 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 NCZ026>028-038>041-043-111600- FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE... RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON... THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SILER CITY... PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON 951 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014 ...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING... AS OF 945 AM EST...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR FROM ASHEBORO EAST TO PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...AND ROCKY MOUNT. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION THROUGH 1100 AM THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIPITATION AND THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 1100 AM. IF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA... PRIMARILY IN WILSON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHATHAM AND WAKE COUNTIES. VINCENT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1006 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0940 AM SNOW HOPE MILLS 34.97N 78.95W
02/11/2014 E0.0 INCH CUMBERLAND NC PUBLIC
TRACE OF SNOW. REPORT VIA TWC NEWS
&&
EVENT NUMBER RAH1400509
BLAESThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
15 winter weather, 5 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall averaged around 3 inches across the county.
Snowfall averaged around 3 inches across the county.
Snowfall averaged around 3-4 inches across the county.
Snowfall averaged around 3-5 inches across the county.
Snowfall averaged around 3-4 inches across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged a trace to 1/2 inch across the county.
Snow averaged a trace to 1/2 inch across the county.
Snow averaged 1 inch across the county.
Snow averaged 1-2 inches across the county.
Snow averaged just a trace across the county.
Snow averaged just a trace across the county.
Snow averaged just a trace across the county.
Snow averaged just a trace across the county.
Snow averaged just a trace across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 502337, 502339, 502340, 502341, 502342, 502349, 502350, 502351, 502352, 502353, 502354, 502356, 502357, 502358, 502359, 502361, 502362, 502363, 502364, 502365.