Winter Weather in Oklahoma, February 5 to 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
COULD FALL BY NOON ON THURSDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AND SOUTH. SNOW HAS ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED IN HEREFORD...CANYON...UMBARGER AND AMARILLO. SNOW
SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT
QUITE A BIT OF SNOW IN THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM IN THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. HAVE EXTENDED
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO BELOW 10 MPH ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS SNOW AT AMA WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS FORECAST. THE SNOW WILL BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SPOTTY AT DHT
AND GUY OVERNIGHT. ALL THREE SITES WILL GET DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY AMA MAYBE IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...NORTH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE THIS MORNING
AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON CIGS FOR TODAY WITH
AMENDMENTS PSBL. ANOTHER FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER WED NIGHT THRU 12Z THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/

SHORT TERM...POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
THE COLD TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT SNOW 24 HOURS AGO IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS CAUSED TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE A THICK STRATUS DECK
REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES. WIND CHILLS HAVE DROPPED
WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE AREA DUE IN PART FROM THE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. ARCTIC SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TODAY. VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE TEENS LATER TODAY. THE
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER LIFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM...ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL INCREASE BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS AS THE
BITTER COLD TEMPS WILL KEEP THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 12:1.
ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS CAN SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...WILL HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY SO
HIGHS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WIND CHILLS FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SFC WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP ALTHOUGH
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. NWP MODELS SHOW MIXED SIGNALS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT LOOKS FOR TONIGHT SO REFRAINED
FROM INSERTING POPS INTO THE FORECAST. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. ALSO ON SATURDAY AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A MODEST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. BUT THIS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SO HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS CAN CLIMB NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGHS ON SUNDAY BACK INTO THE 20S TO THE MID 30S.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
20 PERCENT. A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR WETTING MOISTURE FROM LIGHT SNOW
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.

OK...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

15/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-060645-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1243 PM CST WED FEB 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SNOW WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS AND
LOCAL AUTHORITIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN AMARILLO.

GOEHRING