Hail and Damaging Wind in Ohio, May 7, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1259 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FIRST WAVE ON ITS WAY THROUGH INDIANA BUT IS QUICKLY MEETING ITS
DEMISE. WE THINK THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE WAVES LIKE THIS BUT EACH
WAVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION.
EVENTUALLY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE SO NO
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER ALONG WITH THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AS
THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. SO THAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

INCREASED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CAP SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY AND HOT DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL NOT PROBABLY ONLY 5
TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. JET ENERGY AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY SO THE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY
HINGE ON THE LOCATIONS OF ANY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHTS
CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAINS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY
AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROUGH
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WAS SUPPOSED TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY STALL
ACROSS NRN OHIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT BECOMES HARDER TO TIME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN AS THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC THROUGH MONDAY.
THE OTHER MODELS ARE OFFERING A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION WITH EACH
OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO LEANED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.
THE FORECAST IS RATHER VAGUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS AND TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN LWR MI MOVING EAST
AND EXPANDING SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BROUGHT THUNDER INTO KTOL BUT OTHERWISE A MIX OF VCSH AND VCTS.
ALSO BROUGHT IN A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS EAST BASED ON HRRR
TIMING. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT WITHIN ANY
SHOWER/TSTM CORES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 1 TO
4 FEET FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE HIGHEST WAVES SHIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTH SHORE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IF WINDS END UP BEING STRONGER OR THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO
SHIFT NORTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND WAVES
DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KEC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
510 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-070915-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
510 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.