Flood in Arkansas, May 7 to 29, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
652 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS ARE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS I PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THEY
WOULD BE AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT THEY WILL FILL IN
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND HAVE LEFT THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL LEFT TO VFR
LEVELS BY 16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO MOST SITES TOWARDS THE END
OF THE 12Z PERIOD.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AND WILL
STAY ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING THE STATE
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN INCREASED
MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT CLOUDS TO THE NATURAL STATE TODAY. AS A
RESULT...WENT AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT FOR TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL
BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. CONTINUED
WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.

THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
CONTINUED WITH FORECAST TRENDS AND LOWERED POPS A BIT TO START THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. CONSIDERING MOST OF THE PRECIP THUR NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONVECTIVE...MAKES FOR A TRICKY QPF FORECAST.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN THREE INCHES OF RAIN...WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UNDER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS AGREE IN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM...BUT DO
SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. DID NOT MAKE ANY
WHOLESALE CHANGES BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT DID ADJUST THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY. IN GENERAL...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GFS
SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND A
FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
EURO IS SLOWER WITH MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW AND THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY AND HAVE LEFT THIS FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY SHOWN
IN NUMERICAL MODELS. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE FORECAST AREA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MID SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES IN ON EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THINK THAT
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED RAIN
CHANCES UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY.

THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP TEMPERATURES ON SUN
AND MON A TAD TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE UPPER
PATTERN SHOWN IN THE EUROPEAN...THOUGH THESE WERE HARDLY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ORIGINATING FROM NORTHERN LATITUDES WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO AT LEAST
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS SHOWING IN ANY MODEL YOU LOOK AT...AND
EVEN THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY 4-5
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  64  79  65 /  10  10  50  80
CAMDEN AR         83  67  80  66 /  10  10  50  60
HARRISON AR       83  64  76  63 /  10  10  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  67  79  67 /  10  10  50  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  66  81  66 /  10  10  50  70
MONTICELLO AR     83  67  83  67 /   0  10  40  60
MOUNT IDA AR      80  67  76  67 /  10  10  50  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  64  79  62 /  10  10  50  80
NEWPORT AR        83  65  79  65 /  10  10  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     81  66  82  66 /  10  10  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  63  78  64 /  10  10  60  80
SEARCY AR         82  63  80  64 /  10  10  50  80
STUTTGART AR      85  65  82  66 /  10  10  40  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
745 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-080915-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
745 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. AS SUCH...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING
THURSDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.