Isolated thunderstorms developed over the high terrain of western North Carolina during the afternoon. One strong storm produced small hail across eastern Avery County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms developed over the high terrain of western North Carolina during the afternoon. One strong storm produced small hail across eastern Avery County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 12, 3:26 PM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE. COVERAGE COULD
BECOME SCT OVER THE WRN UPSTATE WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXISTS.
HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED OR EVEN NO CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE ERN
UPSTATE AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR
THESE TRENDS AND THE REST OF THE FIELDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NC MTNS AS WELL
AS ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC REGIONAL
MESOANALYSIS WINDOW SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER
THIS AREA. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE MODIFIED 12 UTC GSO SOUNDING.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CU FIELD IS MUCH WEAKER. THIS IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIER 12 UTC GSO SOUNDING. SCT TO ISOLATED
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUBBLE IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL A
LITTLE PAST SUNSET. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT THE
SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AN A FEW MICROBURSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE
WILL BE A VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT
WITH SUCH LIGHT SHEAR I DON/T THINK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE LONG
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NOT MUCH CHANCE ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DRY THE
BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS OUT A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY AS WE CONTINUE TO
BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.
SCT TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NC MTNS...AND THE POP
DISTRIBUTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 30-40 POPS OVER THE NC
MTNS...TRAILING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AN OCCLUDING SFC LOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO WILL HAVE PULLED AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THRU THE
MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL IN THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING MOST OF
THE ERN US UNDER WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SOME
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QPF FROM
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AND
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THOUGH REMAINING ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND MINOR.
DEEP SHEAR IS STILL QUITE WEAK TUE NIGHT AND WITH THE SMALL MUCAPE
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THIS IS ALSO TRUE WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF SOMEWHAT
TYPICAL WARM SEASON CONVECTION. SHEAR INCREASES GRADUALLY LATE IN THE
DAY...MORESO WED NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE
AND IS REPLACED BY A SHARP TROUGH. FLOW THROUGHOUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS INCREASES THRU THURSDAY...BRINGING 0-6KM SHEAR TO 40 KT OR
MORE BY THU AFTN WHEN AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG INTO THE PIEDMONT
EVEN THU MORNING...WITH MAINLY ATLANTIC FETCH BRINGING PWATS WELL
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN IS THUS AN EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN
ON THU BUT COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST OVERLAP OF
THE SEVERE INGREDIENTS DOES OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN.
FROPA DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL IT BLOWS THRU.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT ON MONDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE REGION ON
SAT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL THEN DROP DOWN ON THE BASIS OF
THE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. H5 HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE
BY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AS A COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BRINGING PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH DAY 7. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUOYANCY TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
SAT/SUN. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FAVORING IN THE MTNS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON MON AND MON
NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BETTER CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT. WITH LOWERING THICKNESSES AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SO FOR THE CU FIELD OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT HAS BEEN
QUITE WEAK. THIS MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE LOW DEWPOINTS SEEN ON THE
12 UTC GSO SOUNDING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHRA OR A TSTM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD IN 3 OR 4 HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH
TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NC MTNS SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR TO
THE WEST OF KAVL. AS THE MEAN FLOW IS OUT OF THE SSW...THESE SHOWERS
AND EVENTUAL TSTMS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AIRFIELD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. CONSIDERING THEIR PROXIMITY...I ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD
FOR A TSTM. A FEW SHRA/TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSTATE
WHERE THERE IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD.
ADDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS AND FOG AROUND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE ONLY PLACE WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANYTHING WAS AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY...BUT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY DRY. ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A
BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOYHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 431 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-132030- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 431 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. WIMBERLEY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
NCZ064-065-121900-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
215 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRUSO...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
LAT...LON 3544 8261 3536 8256 3531 8278 3535 8281
3539 8278 3541 8275 3543 8274 3546 8270
3546 8267
08SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
NCZ033-501-122000-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
308 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEVEN DEVILS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.
PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SEVEN DEVILS...BANNER ELK AND LINVILLE...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.
MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.
LAT...LON 3620 8188 3620 8185 3616 8182 3612 8181
3613 8155 3610 8151 3602 8170 3602 8191
3620 8195 3621 8190
NEDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
NCZ049-505-122030-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-YANCEY-
354 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...
AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUSICK...OR 10 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
BUSICK...
PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...
BUSICK...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.
LAT...LON 3571 8203 3569 8204 3565 8222 3575 8230
3583 8210
NEDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
NCZ033-501-122045-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
403 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...
AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINVILLE...OR NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.
PEOPLE IN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
LINVILLE AND NEWLAND...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.
LAT...LON 3621 8190 3620 8188 3620 8185 3619 8184
3616 8182 3612 8181 3612 8167 3599 8178
3603 8202 3628 8190
NEDThe Greer radar (KGSP), 133 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:40 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotters and county comms relayed multiple reports of hail, especially in the Pineola/Linville area, with the largest being 3/4 inch. Hail accumulated in some spots.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 506343.