Rip Current in Florida, May 12, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
934 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HISPANIOLA
MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND POSSIBILITY UP TO SCA CONDITIONS IN
THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. SO A SCA COULD BE
NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH WEST INTO THE WEST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DRY OUT DUE TO THE SUBSTANCE AHEAD OF THE
INVERTED TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE EAST
METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE KEPT THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014/

UPDATE...
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ENE OF THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH IN THIS PACKAGE AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SPREADING ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE BRIEF WITH MINIMAL/NO IMPACTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY, A SLOW START TO THE WORK WEEK. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY QUIET TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING WELL TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS
WAY AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WEAK TROUGH MAY
HELP TO SPARK OF SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW, ONLY A LOW END CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHEN A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A SLOW
MOVING FRONT AS IT APPROACHES. MODES INDICATE IT WILL JUST BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THIS SURFACE FEATURE, IS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH, WHICH HAS
KEPT SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLY DRY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT FROM THE WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. SO, A HIGH CHANCE POP IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT BEGINS TO PICK UP SOME STEAM AND MOVES
CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS KEEPS THE HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. SO, HAVE A LOWER END CHANCE OF POPS FOR
FRIDAY, THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL BKN050 ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KT AFT 15Z. THESE GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST, WILL KEEP A STIFF EASTERLY
WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX
SOME AROUND MID WEEK AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEA TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  76  86  76 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  86  77 /  10  20  30  30
MIAMI            86  77  88  77 /  10  20  30  30
NAPLES           89  73  89  74 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
130800-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
352 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES TODAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.