Amidst strong heating with steepening low-level lapse rates, isolated severe storms developed along a pre-frontal trough extending into the Carolinas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Amidst strong heating with steepening low-level lapse rates, isolated severe storms developed along a pre-frontal trough extending into the Carolinas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 1:50 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA...ESP ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD BAND THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS SO FAR TODAY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...AND A SMALL POCKET OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE A BREAK THE CLOUDS RECENTLY DEVELOPED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES...CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR KEPT TEMPS AND INSTABILITY DOWN. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT DCAPE IS PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FROM KFAY SOUTH AND EAST...SO IF A DEEP TSTM CELL WITH AN ELEVATED CORE CAN DEVELOP IN THAT AREA...THE CHANCE FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ELSEWHERE...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT CERTAINLY THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THIS EVENING...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS (CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT) WILL MOVE SE AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE WINDING DOWN BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THIS BATCH OF STORMS...ML CAPE DURING THAT TIME WILL BE ON THE DOWNTURN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS SUCH...THE MAIN IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO OUR NW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MERGE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. NOTED THAT GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH PWAT (AROUND 2 INCHES) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...TRENDING LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE TRIAD. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...25KT OR LESS. THUS...WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY INSTEAD BE HEAVY RAIN INVOF OF THE BELT OF HIGH PWAT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY OF THE SLOWER CELLS OR LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS. GIVEN THIS MOISTURE PROFILE...LOOK FOR THE BEST COVERAGE AND THUS HIGHEST POPS TO BE EAST OF THE TRIAD. SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVEAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... FOR FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT: THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRI... BEFORE SWEEPING OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT AND TO OUR EAST SAT. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROUGHLY FOLLOW THIS PACE AS WELL... SETTLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY SAT MORNING BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING. THE EASTERN HALF OF NC WILL REMAIN WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE FRI FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS... WHILE A DRIER COLUMN... SLIGHT RISE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT... AND DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEST WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THERE... A PATTERN SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE GFS SHOWS MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SUBPAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF JUST AROUND 20 KTS OR SO... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKLY FORCED AND SLOW MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTER WITH SUPPRESSED SEVERITY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE PW HOLDING NEAR 2.0 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THE SHEAR AXIS BROADENS AND WEAKENS FURTHER ON SAT WITH MINOR RISES IN HEIGHTS ALOFT. ANY TRACE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS TOUGH TO DETECT ON THE MODEL OUTPUT WITH A FAIRLY UNIFORM LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S AND SE. MODELS SHOW CENTRAL AND WRN NC WITHIN A RELATIVE PW MINIMUM... BETWEEN THE 1.5+ INCH VALUES OVER COASTAL NC AND ERN SC... AND THE HIGHER VALUES PUSHING INTO THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN MCS CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN END OF THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SAT NIGHT. BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC-SOURCE LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH HEATING COULD GENERATE DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS ON THE LOW END... 20-30% ORIENTED NW TO SE RESPECTIVELY... SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THICKNESSSES BOTH FRI AND SAT STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED SAT THAN FRI... SO WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FOR SUN-WED: DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY WEAK SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT THROUGH THE PIEDMONT... HOWEVER WE WILL START TO SEE PW VALUES RECOVER BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUGGESTING A TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONALLY TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON PULSE CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX (MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS LOW S 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) AS LOW AS WILL WOBBLE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN-TUE THEN INTO QUEBEC WED... AND THIS BROAD TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM WILL MEAN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NC... WITH SW LOW LEVEL AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT... AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FOSTERING BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. WILL PLACE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ON EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON-TUE... WITH PERHAPS A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGHER POPS WED TO LEVERAGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE FRONT MIGHT DROP SE INTO THE CWA AND PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE INTO SRN/ERN NC. SEE NOTHING TO INDICATE A MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPS... AS GREATER-THAN-USUAL CLOUD COVER WITH HEATING EACH DAY WILL MODULATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE- NORMAL THICKNESSES... SO WILL STICK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... AND DAILY LOWS NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH && AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THE REST OF TODAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONE AREA OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR STORM IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INVOF OF KRWI AND KFAY) WHERE DCAPE VALUES ARE AOA 1000J/KG. WHILE THE PROBABILITY IS LOW...ANY OF THE DEEPER STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF BUT STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS WITH DIRECTIONS OF A HIGHLY VARIABLE NATURE. BEYOND THIS PARTICULAR CONCERN...ANY OF THE TSTMS IN OUR CWA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOCALLY LOW CIGS. OUTSIDE OF THIS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH ASSOC IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS MINIMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...NP NEAR TERM...NP SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...NP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 426 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-100930- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- WILSON- 426 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-100930- JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 426 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
NCZ040-075>077-086-091900-
HOKE-LEE-HARNETT-CHATHAM-MOORE-
208 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFY ACROSS MUCH
OF LEE...HARNETT...MOORE AND NORTHERN HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...
AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE OR NEAR SEVEN LAKES...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR
OLIVA AND CAMERON.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...SOUTHERN PINES...LILLINGTON...CARTHAGE...PINEHURST...
DUNN...ABERDEEN...ANGIER...ERWIN AND WHISPERING PINES.
LAT...LON 3520 7966 3540 7974 3554 7929 3553 7927
3559 7917 3561 7908 3561 7899 3552 7869
3550 7868 3550 7866 3536 7856 3526 7860
3526 7880 3524 7887 3523 7888 3523 7915
3507 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 244DEG 30KT 3528 7962
BLAESSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
232 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
NCZ010-011-091930-
HALIFAX-WARREN-
232 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX
AND CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...
AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF WARRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE RAPIDS...HALIFAX...LITTLETON...WELDON...AFTON...AIRLIE...
MEDOC MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...ROANOKE RAPIDS LAKE...ROSEMARY AND
ARCOLA.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7771 3641 7755 3640 7754
3637 7755 3635 7758 3633 7759 3619 7788
3619 7800 3621 7801 3621 7811 3625 7813
3624 7816 3626 7817 3625 7819 3630 7828
3649 7796 3649 7779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 242DEG 26KT 3628 7814
BLAESThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:51 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees down on power-lines near the intersection of Main Street and Horner Boulevard.
Several trees were blown down and uprooted in the Scotland Neck area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 535651, 535653.