Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, July 9 to 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
629 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WITH NO REAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TO SPEAK OF AT THE MOMENT.
THE MAIN FORCING LATER TODAY WILL RESULT FROM A 500 MB JET PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
WILL BE SITUATED OVER A SATURATED MID-LEVEL...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE
COLLOCATED WITH A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT COULD PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS MID
MORNING...BUT MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS DIABATIC HEATING/DEW
POINTS INCREASE AND THE RIGHT HALF OF THE JET ENTRANCE REGION LINES
UP BETTER WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOP THIS MORNING BASED
SOLELY ON THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALSO NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...THIS CONTINUITY IS REASSURING
SEEING THE 06Z NAM TODAY IS STILL SHOWING THIS AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310K LAYER. THIS WILL BE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION TO START
SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE ANY BOUNDARY IN THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. TO
SUM IT UP... AN UPPER LEVEL JET...CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE THE KEYS FOR TODAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SEVERAL DIFFERENT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCTS INDICATE ACTIVITY
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...I DID RAISE POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME PERIODS MORE THAN OTHERS.
AFTER SUNRISE...THERE ARE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALL MORNING...WITH CHANCES INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND EVENING. INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IS AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH
DECENT BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS. GIVING THE
WEAK CAP THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG TO PERHAPS MODERATELY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP
TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...SO I DO EXPECT AN MCS TO DEVELOP IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON GOING...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN FACT...POPS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WERE ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER
80S. CHALLENGE HERE IS GOING TO BE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING WE
WILL RECEIVE...SO CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
NEVERTHELESS...I DO NOT EXPECT A HUGE SWING FROM WHAT IS FORECAST
NOW. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY SITTING BETWEEN THE LOWER 60S AND
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN PRESENTS NUMEROUS FORECAST
CHALLENGES WHEN IT COMES TO OUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT AND POOR IN THEIR HANDLING OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

THURSDAY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. A FEW FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA.

FRIDAY...SHOULD BE HOT...BUT MAYBE NOT AS HOT AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. FORECAST MODELS ARE BRINGING A SFC COOL FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA A LITTLE EARLIER AND MANY OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES
MAY END UP NORTH OF THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KANSAS STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY HOT JUST AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS NEARING 70F AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
SO EVEN IF THE HIGHS ONLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER
NEBRASKA ZONES...IT WILL STILL FEEL PLENTY HOT AND HUMID. HAVE
REINTRODUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE COOL FRONT. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THUS
ENHANCING THE THREAT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COOL
FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL
WITH REGARD TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
MODEL VARIATION AND A LACK OF CONSISTENCY FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY RETREAT FURTHER WEST AND BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE AROUND NEVADA. THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD SINK SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SHORT
WAVES BRINING SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN MCS WITHIN OUR CWA OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON ONE OR TWO
OF THESE DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS CERTAINLY THERE...BUT IT MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE DEALS WHERE SOME GET A LOT OF RAIN AND OTHERS NEAR
BY GET NOTHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR BY
TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHS BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM HERE BY LATE MORNING...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO BE ON THE DECLINE BY ABOUT 11 AM...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...IFR CONDITIONS FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY BE REALIZED WITHIN HEAVIER RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENTIRELY HIGH ON TIMING AT THE MOMENT...BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED AS EARLY AS 1 PM. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS
TO THE TAF ONCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS START TO FORM AND TIMING
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ONCE AN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FORMS. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
502 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
101015-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
502 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE REALIZED THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CHANCES WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
281...AND INCREASING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE MORNING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
PERHAPS MODERATELY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND WIND. HAIL
NEAR QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...CHANCES FOR SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO IDENTIFY ANY
KIND OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING...LOCATION...AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

GUERRERO/WESELY