Hail in North Carolina, August 12, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT...
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. EARLIER SHRA OVER
THE PIEDMONT HAS MOVED EAST...WHILE SHRA ALONG THE THE UPPER JET
HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE NC MTNS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MTN SHRA. THE UPPER AND LOWER FEATURES
MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS NC...AND
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LESS COVERAGE
IS SHOWN ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SCT
COVERAGE OVER THESE AREAS. CURRENT LATE DAY AND EVENING POP ALREADY
HAVE THIS IN PLACE...SO UPDATED TO TAKE THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
INTERPOLATE THEM INTO THE LATER PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVING EAST AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. WITH
THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FCST HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK.

645 AM UPDATE...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM OVER THE I-77
CORRIDOR WHERE IT APPEARS FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS THAT SOME WEAK
925-850MB UPGLIDE CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT BY THE TIME IT DOES WE/LL LIKELY BE STARTING TO
DESTABILIZE. THUS BLENDED THE POPS TO REPRESENT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
INTO THE GENERAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP TREND.

AS OF 300 AM EDT...HEIGHTS FALL STEADILY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. A SFC LOW WILL LIFT
NWD ACROSS LAKE HURON AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS ACRS THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE WHICH REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUN-MON
APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY RETREATED INTO CENTRAL NC/VA WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILING INTO THE FA. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
GRADUALLY TO SW THIS MORNING. THE WEDGE WILL RETREAT FURTHER AND
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACRS THE AREA TODAY...AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR PRECIP. NAM/GFS
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE FA THIS AFTN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE UPSLOPE FORCING
PROVIDED BY THE VEERED FLOW...SO GREATEST POPS ARE FCST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STILL RELATIVELY LOW THICKNESSES
WILL KEEP HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW CLIMO OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

SBCAPE VALUES PROGGED BY NAM/GFS ARE STRONGER THAN WHAT WE/VE DEALT
WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...1000-1500 J/KG. THIS VALUE SUPPORTED BY SREF
PROBS.H5 FLOW INCREASES STEADILY THRU THE DAY AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH UPPER DRYING ALSO OCCURRING THEREIN. 0-6KM
SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE IS 25-30 KT OVER THE AREA BY SUNSET
WHICH IS SUFFICIENT TO EXPECT AT LEAST LOOSE LINEAR ORGANIZATION TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE DRYING ALOFT SUGGESTS HIGHER DCAPES AND A
MARGINAL STRONG/SEVERE WIND THREAT. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA WITHIN
THE 5 PERCENT CONTOURS FOR WIND/HAIL ON THE NEW DAY 1 OTLK. THE WIND
THREAT SEEMS LIKE A BETTER BET BUT FREEZING LEVELS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
HIGH SO AT LEAST NEAR-SEVERE HAIL IS A POSSIBILITY. PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED BUT WILL DROP AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...STILL
SUPPORTING WIND AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

THE SFC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE MTNS THIS EVENING AND IS TIMED TO EXIT
THE CWFA BEFORE DAYBREAK. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT SUFFICIENT LLVL
MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP LINGERING CLOUDS/POPS ALONG THE TENN
BORDER LATER INTO THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
IN THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...VERY QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY PLEASANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM...BY WHICH TIME A CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS WILL BE WELL-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
BENEATH AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE
FROM TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER WILL BE THE LOW DEWPOINTS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WED AND THU AFTERNOONS.
THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO SUSTAIN MIN TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. NEEDLESS TO SAY...PRECIP CHANCES ARE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...THERE IS ACTUALLY A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE GLOBAL MODELS RE: THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHEREAS YESTERDAY/S RUNS WERE
ATTEMPTING TO NOSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY OR SO...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE PICKED UP ON A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ROUNDING THE STRONG
WESTERN HIGH AND ESSENTIALLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THIS WOULD
TEND TO MAINTAIN ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE COULD
MANAGE TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH TO SOME EXTENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT EXACTLY HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE IS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM.

IN THE INTERIM...A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SEND A REINFORCING COOL FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY BE TOO DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. SOME
TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCES WILL NEVERTHELESS BE CARRIED FRIDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE /RIDGE
BUSTING/ SHORT WAVE...MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD... AND CONVERGENCE TOWARD MORE CLIMO-APPROPRIATE POPS
SEEMS REASONABLE BY DAY 7. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CIGS SHUD SLOWLY IMPROVE OR SCATTER OUT WITH VFR STILL
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING OPS DURING THE PERIOD.
COLD FROPA IS PROGGED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH CONSENSUS PUTTING A
NWLY WIND SHIFT IN 06-09Z TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER THE FRONT IS NOT
ESPECIALLY STRONG...AND GIVEN THE SEASON IT COULD GET HUNG UP IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS. IF THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH AND DRY SFC
CONDITIONS OUT...THERE COULD BE SOME FOG TO DEAL WITH AT DAYBREAK
WED. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED ACROSS SC...AND SHUD ACROSS
NC SOON. STILL EXPECT ATMOS TO DESTABILIZE FOR SCT TSRA. CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY IN PROB30 RANGE. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT BEING WEAK IT MAY NOT PROGRESS AS QUICKLY AS
SUGGESTED. FOR NOW WILL ASSUME IT DOES PUSH ACRS THE SITES WHICH
BRING IN DRIER AIR THAT WILL PRECLUDE FOG. NONETHELESS GUID PUTS LOW
CIGS AND SOME FOG AT KAVL IN UP-VALLEY FLOW.

OUTLOOK...DRIER VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       MED   75%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  88%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  81%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH/WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
637 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WHILE THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

NCZ509-510-121715-
EASTERN POLK-POLK MOUNTAINS-
1225 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POLK COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM
EDT...

AT 1225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRYON...OR 6 MILES WEST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  COLUMBUS...
  LAKE ADGER...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3526 8197 3522 8196 3519 8197 3520 8229
      3519 8233 3519 8236 3523 8235 3524 8236
      3524 8235 3528 8235 3532 8231 3538 8227
      3541 8215

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

NCZ508-510-121800-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
114 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
EASTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM MILLS SPRING TO NORTH OF GREEN
CREEK THROUGH 140 PM EDT...AND THEN WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THEREAFTER.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3518 8185 3519 8219 3520 8225 3534 8225
      3536 8223 3539 8185

HG