Tornado and Flash Flooding in North Carolina, April 24 to 25, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
243 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC AND VA FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VEERING AROUND FROM SE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD WARM MOIST AIR
ADVECTING INTO SW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...INCREASING TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS AND LOW STRATUS COVERAGE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW AND WEST...AS THE
WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER...THUS EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPS...MID 40S...IN THE NE AND
HIGHEST...LOW TO MID 50S...IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY: THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY OF 500-1500 J/KG AND  SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS
FRIDAY AFT/EVE. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SHOULD SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES TO
SET UP EARLY IN THE DAY. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS...WITH SRH VALUES IN THE 100-300 M2/S2
RANGE WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A LOW TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION COMMENCES AFTER SUNSET...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE
NW. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE LOWEST IN THE
NW...UPPER 40S...AND HIGHEST WHERE THE FROPA AND CLEARING HAPPEN
LATER...MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

FORECAST PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD.

GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING SOME GREAT WEATHER ON SATURDAY
WITH A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MIX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 78 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND 82
IN THE SOUTHWEST. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 MPH IS EXPECTED
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH DURING MID AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LATEST SET OF GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
THE BACKDOOR FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE ON SUNDAY
CWA. THE NAM/GFS/EC ALL PUSH THE FRONT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING AND THEN LINGER FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. STILL NOT READY TO FULLY COMMIT TO THIS SCENARIO BUT
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS AND THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS ARE NOW FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS A
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CONUS. A STRONG SYSTEM/CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK....WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
AFFECTING OUR AREA MOSTLY LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE WORKED OUT
WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP PRECIP
CHANCES LATE MONDAY... WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME LOOKING TO BE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND TIME OF
YEAR...SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHEN IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE RIGHT NOW. TEMPS SHOULD
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT INCREASING LOW STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR...AND POSSIBLY
LIFR...RANGE FROM THE SW AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS...KINT AND KGSO...EARLY.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT BREEZY SW SURFACE WIND AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...KC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-251945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
340 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...WILL EXIST EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY...AND AGAIN AT TIMES
NEXT WEEK.

DJF