Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, April 24, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Today/Tonight...As of early this morning, a surface warm front
stretched across the northern forecast area, delineating
temperatures in the lower 50s from the middle to upper 60s south of
the boundary. This front was also serving for some weak isentropic
ascent, with light showers developing over northern Missouri and
southern Iowa. To the west, a cold front was located over central
Kansas, with a quickly-moving outflow boundary preceding the cold
front. The outflow boundary has been efficient at generating
scattered convection just behind the leading edge of outflow during
the past several hours. The overall activity will continue to push
eastward through the remainder of the morning and afternoon hours.
Trends with this system have been for a slower progression, and
likewise expect chances for precipitation to hold on through mid to
late afternoon in many areas, although coverage should become more
spotty later in the event. Current upper trough axis is located over
far eastern Colorado and is taking on a negative tilt. Strongest
upper diffluence is approaching current activity and with strong
dynamics to overspread the region over the next 6 hours, should see
widespread precipitation continue, with perhaps a gradual increase in
coverage. As for thunderstorms, mesoanalysis and short-term guidance
continue to call for meager instability (MUCAPE < 500 J/kg) along and
ahead of this activity. Not only should this eliminate the severe
weather potential, but limit overall thunderstorm coverage across the
forecast area. Therefore, expect light to moderate rainfall, with the
best chance of thunder along the leading and southwestern edge of the
convective activity. Many areas may receive up to one-half inch of
precipitation, with locally higher amounts in areas with thunderstorms.
Rain will end from west to east during the afternoon and early
evening hours. As for temperatures, highs today will be cooler with
abundant cloud cover and precipitation, with readings topping in the
middle to upper 60s. Cool readings will prevail tonight as skies
clear, with lows in the middle 40s.

Friday through Sunday...Temperatures will remain warm as little cold
air advection will be present upon the departing upper system.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the 70s to lower 80s both Friday
and Saturday. Another highly-amplified upper trough will move into
the western US on Friday, and emerge into the Plains during the
weekend. There remains some model spread with regards to the
synoptic placement of key features, especially Sunday. Initial
chances for thunderstorms, elevated in nature, are possible
beginning Saturday morning upon the nose of warm air/moisture
advection. There should be a lull in the activity once this
convection shifts eastward and the CWA establishes a moistening warm
sector. As the trough moves into the Plains Saturday night into
Sunday, strong upper ascent and an approaching pacific cold
front/lee trough will lead to increasing chances of thunderstorms.
One of the more important features the models differ on position is
the cold front/lee trough on Sunday. The GFS places this boundary
over eastern Kansas by Sunday afternoon, with the Euro further west
over central Kansas. Considering strong pressure falls with this
large upper system, would not be surprised to see a slower
progression of the surface front. This may be important as
convective initiation along the front may occur further west,
potentially keeping the high-end severe weather to the west of the
forecast area. However, with this dynamic system, it is too early to
rule out the potential for warm sector development ahead of the
front and/or intensification of any left over activity from Saturday
night. Deep layer shear is likely to be supportive of organized
convection, although the low-level shear and overall instability
vary greatly among model members, along with the actual timing of
convection, owing to modest uncertainty at this stage to gage the
anticipated storm mode and subsequent severe weather threat. Long
story short, it is a little too early to dive into the specifics of
Sunday/Sunday night's severe weather potential.

Monday and beyond...The surface low pressure will occlude over
Nebraska on Monday, with the broad stacked upper system left to
gradually drift eastward as it evolves. Models generally agree with
this upper pattern, which will spell much cooler and continued wet
weather for Monday through mid-week. Depending on the speed of the
surface front, there is a chance for the warm sector to remain in
the forecast area on Monday, potentially allowing for redevelopment
of thunderstorms with good lapse rates. Severe weather would be
possible if the slower solution were to verify. Otherwise, expect
well below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in
the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

The current line of SHRA and VCTS should clear the terminals by 19Z
today. Behind the line CIGS will improve through the afternoon
accompanied by northwest winds. Expecting VFR conditions tonight and
through the rest of the TAF period. The surface winds tomorrow will
become southwesterly and pick up in speeds around 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Pietrycha

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251730-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1217 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
 AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
 MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1017 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

KSZ104-105-MOZ028-029-037-241545-
CLAY MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON KS-PLATTE MO-WYANDOTTE KS-
1017 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN
CLAY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1045 AM CDT...

AT 1012 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MISSION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KANSAS CITY KANSAS...KANSAS CITY...NORTH KANSAS CITY...RIVERSIDE...
  SUGAR CREEK...GLADSTONE...CLAYCOMO...COURTNEY...LIBERTY...KANSAS
  CITY DOWNTOWN...HOUSTON LAKE...AVONDALE...NORTHMOOR...OAKVIEW...
  PLEASANT VALLEY...GLENAIRE...MISSOURI CITY...MAYWOOD...OAKS AND
  OAKWOOD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8.
  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 418 AND 423.
  I-35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 21.
  I-35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 235.
  I-635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 41 TO 63.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 5.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3938 9454 3923 9423 3895 9464 3902 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 218DEG 36KT 3905 9463

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
04/24/2014  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY