The epic November 17-19th 2014 lake effect event will be remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo’s snowy history. Over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, with mere inches a few miles away to the north.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
The epic November 17-19th 2014 lake effect event will be remembered as one of the most significant winter events in Buffalo’s snowy history. Over 5 feet of snow fell over areas just east of Buffalo, with mere inches a few miles away to the north. There were 13 fatalities with this storm, hundreds of major roof collapses and structural failures, 1000s of stranded motorists, and scattered food and gas shortages due to impassable roads. Numerous trees also gave way due to the weight of the snow, causing isolated power outages. While this storm was impressive on its own, a second lake effect event on Nov-19-20 dropped another 1-4 feet of snow over nearly the same area and compounded rescue and recovery efforts. |The storm began Monday around 6 PM (Nov 17) as a band of snow developed over the Buffalo Southtowns and quickly moved into the Northtowns with thunder and lightning. The band settled south fairly quickly and by 9PM the band had moved mostly just south of the city and airport and locked in place as the 15 to 20 mile wide band centered on a line from Lackawanna and Hamburg across West Seneca, Lancaster, and Alden. The northern edge of the lake effect band was so striking that many described it as a wall of snow. Snow rates on the northern edge easily exceeded 3 inches per hour with some snow rates near 6 inches per hour. By sunrise some areas had already exceeded 3 feet of snow. Meanwhile, the southern edge of the band was located along the Lake Erie shoreline in Chautauqua County to near the Southtowns, including Orchard Park, East Aurora, and east into Wyoming County including Attica where about a foot of snow had fallen by sunrise. Travel across the Southtowns was nearly impossible with most roads unplowed as plows, at least those that weren’t stuck, focused a few main roadways needed for emergency vehicles. The Thruway was shut down from the Pennsylvania border to Rochester, and other routes, including I-190, I-290, and Route 400 were also shutdown. |During Tuesday November 18, the snow band didn’t budge, and by nightfall snow amounts from Lancaster to Southern Cheektowaga east to Alden had accumulated in excess of 4 to 5 feet. The wall of snow was still quite apparent with blue skies to the north and zero visibility on the other side. On Transit Road, there were only a few inches on the ground at Genesee Street, but several feet of snow at Walden Avenue less than 2 miles to the south. Winds gusted to 35 mph but in general winds created sub-blizzard conditions. There were still whiteout conditions however as snow continued to fall in excess of 3 inches per hour. The band began to waver a little to the south Tuesday night but overall continued in a slightly weaker state over the Southtowns. Finally, the band let up as it drifted to the north and weakened rapidly Wednesday morning. |Millions of dollars were lost as dairy farmers were forced to dump milk that could not be transported for processing. Eight indirect deaths were blamed on this storm.|Specific storm reports included: 65 inches in South Cheektowaga, 63 inches in Lancaster, 60 inches in Gardenville, 57 inches in West Seneca, 51 inches in Elma, 48 Inches in Hamburg, 42 inches in Lackawanna, 40 inches in Corfu, 36 inches in Darien, 28 inches in Attica, 24 inches in Wyoming, and 19 inches in Dunkirk.|This event combined with the lake effect snow event following the next couple of days qualified the area for a Federal Disaster Declaration.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 17, 3:38 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
338 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STRONG LAKE EFFECT EVENTS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS AN ARCTIC
BLAST OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 15 TO 20
MILE WIDE SWATH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
SYSTEM WILL DISRUPT THE BANDS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET
ANOTHER STRONG LAKE EFFECT EVENT THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT AND
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A TROUGH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF DEPARTING LIGHT RAIN AND TERRAIN DEPENDENT
SNOW. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT EVENT LATER
TONIGHT...LASTING INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN...THIS HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A HISTORIC
OR AT LEAST WELL REMEMBERED LAKE EFFECT EVENT...WITH SNOW TOTALS
EXCEEDING 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE 24 HR/36+ INCH
EVENT IN 12/1995 FOR KBUF IS HARD TO BEAT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY
REACH THIS VALUE TO THE SOUTH. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR LAKE ERIE...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...EXPECT A VERY TIGHT
NORTHERN GRADIENT WITH SNOW LIKELY REACHING BUFFALO/KBUF...BUT
POSSIBLY BARELY GRAZING THE NORTHTOWNS. THIS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
TO NAIL DOWN...AND WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE NORTHTOWNS AS THE
EVENT UNFOLDS. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF BUFFALO...THE MAIN
INTERCHANGES OF THE THRUWAY TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SOUTHTOWNS SHOULD
TAKE A HARD HIT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FEET OF SNOW...WITH MAJOR
DISRUPTIONS TO TRAFFIC AS SNOW RATES FAR EXCEED THE ABILITY TO KEEP
ROADS CLEAR. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
LOCALIZED 3-5 INCH/HR SNOW RATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THUNDERSNOW. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ALONG CHAUTAUQUA TO THE BOSTON
HILLS...BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WILL GET INTO THE SNOW BAND
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE AREAS ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SPARED. AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND SHOULD BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF AN OSWEGO-OSCEOLA...BUT
EXPECT SNOW SOUTH OF THAT LINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL
MEASURING SNOW IN FEET.
THE BANDS OFF OF BOTH LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY BE ABOUT
15-20 MILES WIDE WITH TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DOING A FINE JOB
FOCUSING ON THE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONCERN. HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
TO THE NORTH FOR LAKE ERIE...BUT FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR LAKE ONTARIO.
A FEW CLIMATOLOGICAL NOTES...500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TO HOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OFF THE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGY. AT 850MB...THE -15C TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO HIGHLY
UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN STRONG
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSNOW IN THE HEART OF THE BANDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES AS A RESULT.
ONE REMAINING ISSUE IS THE B WORD. RECENT NEAR BLIZZARD AND
VERIFYING BLIZZARDS HAVE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WIND PROFILES...WITH THE
RELATIVELY RECENT 01/2014 BLIZZARD SHOWING A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
WIND SIGNATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE CLOSELY MATCHED WITH
NEAR BLIZZARDS OF 12/2008 AND 12/2009...BOTH OF WHICH COULD HAVE
VERIFIED AT LEAST AS LOCALIZED BLIZZARDS. STILL NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH FOR A NEW WARNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE THINK WE HAVE ALREADY
HIT THIS EVENT RATHER HARD WITH AMPLE LEAD TIME. LOOKING AT THE
RECENT 01/2014 EVENT...ZERO VISIBILITIES WERE PARTLY DUE WINDBLOWN
SHREDDED TINY BITS OF SNOWFLAKES IN THE EXTREMELY COLD BELOW 0F
AIRMASS. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 20S...THE SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...BUT THE
VISIBILITY MIGHT BE JUST A TAD BETTER. REGARDLESS...AT LEAST WIND
GUSTS SHOULD OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 35MPH WITHIN THE BANDS...WITH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME THE MAIN CONCERN...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME
TO CONSIDER AN UPGRADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT EVENT NUMBER ONE WILL STILL BE
GOING STRONG TUESDAY NIGHT EAST OF BOTH LAKES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RUN 15-20K FEET WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY ON
THE COLLIER INDEX. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED LONG
FETCH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE STRONGEST PORTION OF BOTH BANDS...ESPECIALLY
OFF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE DEEP INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE MIXED
PHASE IN THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF THUNDER AS
WELL. STRONG WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE BANDS WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
EXPECT THE BAND TO STILL BE OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHTOWNS AND POSSIBLY
THE BOSTON HILLS EARLY IN THE EVENING AND EXTENDING EAST INTO
WYOMING COUNTY AND POSSIBLY LIVINGSTON COUNTY AS WELL IN A SOMEWHAT
WEAKENED STATE THAT FAR EAST. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
LOWER LAKES DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD VEER BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO MORE OF A 270-260 DIRECTION BRIEFLY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE
BAND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE STILL
CATCHING A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AGAIN...WHICH WILL
CARRY THE BAND BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING PHASE HOWEVER AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO COME DOWN. WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE BAND WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO
AREA AND INTO NIAGARA COUNTY WHILE WEAKENING ON THE WAY AS
INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES. THIS MAY DROP A FEW EXTRA INCHES BUT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE EVENT.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
EXPECT THE BAND TO SETTLE FROM JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN DURING THE
EVENING TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TUG HILL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED LONG
FETCH...THE BAND MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES
DURING THIS TIME. ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE TUG HILL...HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 5 INCHES PER HOUR. IT SHOULD
REMAIN THERE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY SWEEPING NORTH
ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY SHOULD FORCE THE BAND TO WEAKEN ON ITS WAY NORTH WITH
JUST A FEW EXTRA INCHES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE GONE...AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES SSW AND STRONGLY
SHEARED AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES. THIS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THEN THE SECOND LAKE EFFECT EVENT BEGINS. COLD ADVECTION WILL START
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER POOL OF COLD AIR CROSSING THE
LOWER LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL STEADILY IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
EXTREME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AS
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REACH 15-18K FEET AGAIN. IT IS STILL
A LONG WAYS OUT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WE NOW
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ROUND
2. WE ALSO DO NOT WANT TO GIVE THE PUBLIC THE IMPRESSION THAT THE
HEAVY SNOW IS OVER ONCE THE FIRST EVENT ENDS.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON SSW
FLOW FROM GRAND ISLAND TO NIAGARA COUNTY. THIS WILL DROP SOUTH TO
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND GENESEE COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTENSIFY ON THE WAY AS INSTABILITY DEEPENS AND FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ALIGNED DOWN THE LAKE. THE BAND WILL THEN SINK EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE BAND TO REACH
PEAK INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON ITS WAY MOVING
SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH WITH THIS SECOND
EVENT...BUT IT STILL LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH FOR WELL OVER A FOOT IN THE
MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
EXPECT A BAND TO DEVELOP NORTH OF WATERTOWN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND REACH THE TUG HILL THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS OSWEGO COUNTY BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE AT ITS MOST
INTENSE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE TUG HILL REGION.
INSTABILITY IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER OVER LAKE ONTARIO...SO IF THE
BAND REMAINS IN ONE PLACE LONG ENOUGH AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO FEET ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
THIS SECOND EVENT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS WINDY AS THE
FIRST EVENT. EVEN SO...IT WILL STILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON TRAVEL
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING ON FRIDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WELL SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE
ERIE AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ALLOWING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE. THE HIGH
WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
FINALLY END THE LAKE EFFECT ALTOGETHER OFF LAKE ERIE BY LATE EVENING
AND OFF LAKE ONTARIO BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE VERY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF SOME CLEARING IS REALIZED. THIS MAY ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PROVIDE A DRY DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE A LITTLE BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE
PLACE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES AND
WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK TO NORMAL
BY SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS ONE OR TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARMTH AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MAY
BRING A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD RISK TO ALL THE CREEKS AND RIVERS THAT
DRAIN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.
THAT WOULD INCLUDE THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...
BLACK CREEK...AND THE RIVERS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING MAINLY IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN MIXING IN FROM THE FINGER LAKES
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY (POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
KART) AND POINTS EASTWARD.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WE WILL TRANSITION INTO A PURELY LAKE EFFECT REGIME ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE KBUF
AND KART TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KBUF AND KART TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND MOVES ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. DESPITE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW
REMAINING NORTH OF THE KJHW TERMINAL...WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CIGS
TONIGHT THANKS TO COLD UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP FOR THE KIAG AND KROC TERMINALS VERY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO AGAIN DEVELOP
AT THE KROC TERMINAL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ERIE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW (HEAVY AT TIMES) AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE KBUF AND
KART TERMINALS...KEEPING LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A PERIOD OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AT THE KROC
TERMINAL AS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE BAND
STARTS TO SWING BACK SOUTH. LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KJHW
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AT THE KIAG TERMINAL...AS THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
FROM LATE THIS EVENING ON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL VLIFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH LOCAL
IFR. AREAS OF MVFR ELSEWHERE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL VLIFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
WITH LOCAL IFR. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY...VFR
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE GALES ON
BOTH LAKES. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH GALES LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE
AND TUESDAY NIGHT ON LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS WITH WIND GUSTS NEARING GALES ON THE NIAGARA
RIVER.
STRONG WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WITH AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES PROBABLE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010>012-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ010>012-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ006>008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ021.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ019-020.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ019-
020.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ030.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST WEDNESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...ZAFFHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 NYZ006>008-182100- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001-002-004-005-014-182100- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ003-182100- MONROE- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ021-182100- ALLEGANY- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ019-020-182100- CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ010>012-085-182100- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ013-182100- LIVINGSTON- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-SLZ022-024-182100- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ040-041-182100- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LOZ042>045-062>065-182100- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 348 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF HITCHCOCK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-19 | 46 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-19 | 77 | Male | Other | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-18 | 82 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-19 | 60 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-19 | 56 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-18 | 30 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-18 | 59 | Female | Permanent Home | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie | 2014-11-19 | 82 | Male | Permanent Home | Indirect |
| Lake-Effect Snow, Genesee | 2014-11-19 | 56 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Indirect |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, November 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 550166, 550167, 550170, 550169, 550168.