Drought in New Mexico, May 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT WED APR 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS
NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO BY
00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TURBULENT NORTH FLOW REESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE STATE BY 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL
MT CHAIN GAPS WILL G25KTS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH 15Z
THU MORNING...AND IN TAF FOR ABQ. CIGS AOA BKN/OVC050 WILL
EXCURSION TO MVFR OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SHOWERS THROUGH
15Z...WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY 20Z EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS
SCATTERING OUT BY 03Z THURSDAY EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT WED APR 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SOUTHWARD CREATING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS REMAINING HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR GAPS AND CANYONS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WE DRY OUT. INTO THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD RETURNING
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITION WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DUSTY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT AS A COLD
FRONT CREATED GUSTY CONDITIONS SENDING DUST AIRBORNE. OTHERWISE
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BEGAN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS MOST
PREDOMINATELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -6 TO -8 C WITH ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS
BUT CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. A FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY AND
ESTANCIA VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND UNION COUNTY. A SECOND FRONTAL SURGE WILL CREATE GAP
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA. A DRAMATIC INCREASE
IN DUST IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT
A CONTINUATION OF SOME SUSPENDED DUST IS STILL POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN SOME AREAS. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SO HAVE OPTED
NOT TO ISSUES AN ADVISORY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
STAYING WELL BELOW NORMAL. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WINDS PICK UP IN THAT AREA.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO TREND UP AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING AND NO PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAYS
RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
CREATE CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. INTO SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE CENTERED
OVER THE STATE AND FLATTEN OUT LEAVING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS TRENDING JUST A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER. AFTERNOON BREEZES IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL
AGAIN CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO MID WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN INCOMING TROUGH IS SET TO MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO COOL WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...

UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY CANYON
WINDS INTO THE RGV TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUSTS TONIGHT MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN RECORDED LAST NIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST MTS.

GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MTS...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MUCH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS AND GOOD
OR BETTER RH RECOVERIES.

THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE FRIDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST THEN WESTERLY BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS INCREASING WINDINESS...A DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH
HAINES. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDIER DAY OF THE WEEKEND AT THIS
TIME...WHEN A SURFACE LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES...AND MIN RH VALUES
FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE SIMILAR RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...THE DURATION
OF SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL BE MUCH GREATER SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE RGV AND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. COMBINED
WITH ONLY POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...HIGHLIGHTS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED AND WINDY WEATHER LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE EARLY TO MID WEEK
PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AND ARIZONA. SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH VALUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS....AND WILL BE COUPLED WITH HIGH
HAINES AND HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY SO ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY WHEN THE WEST COOLS OFF A BIT. COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WHEN THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW SWING
OVER THE STATE...BUT WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ517-518-523-530-531.

HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ522-528-529.

&&

21/52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT WED APR 30 2014

NMZ501>540-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
549 AM MDT WED APR 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR AREAS
AROUND ESPANOLA...SANTA FE...AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE ESTANCIA VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.