Flooding in Missouri, January 10 to 11, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

A long, narrow band of rain has set up across the Midwest,
extending from the Arklatex northeastward through much of
Missouri and getting into the Great Lakes region. So far hourly
rainfall rates are behaving themselves. In general, about one
tenth of an inch per hour (give or take) is the norm. Rainfall has
been edging eastward with time, with the greatest coverage now
from Table Rock Lake to the Lake of the Ozarks and points east. As
mentioned in previous discussion, concern remains for flooding of
low water crossings and creeks as rain/snow melt/frozen ground
combine to produce excess runoff. As a result, will keep the flood
watch going for the time being.

Models continue to indicate a progressive end to the rainfall,
which is good news. Still signs that additional showers and
perhaps a storm will develop along the cold front as it moves in
from the west later this afternoon. The main shortwave will kick
this front eastward and provide additional focus for lift, as a
result have kept higher PoPs going this afternoon to account for
this redevelopment.

Speaking of the main shortwave, this feature is beginning to
produce an area of precipitation across Nebraska, which will moves
southeast with time. This will bring a risk of a few light snow
showers or flurries to areas along/north of the Highway 54 late
this evening into the overnight hours. With temperatures right
around freezing, accumulation will be minor at best (if at all).

Clouds will linger into early Saturday with clearing during the
mid/late morning hours. Saturday afternoon looks pleasant with
highs getting well into the 40s, with a few 50s possible over
western/southwestern portions of the outlook area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

The upper level ridge axis extending from Manitoba, Canada
southwestward toward New Mexico Saturday Evening shifts rapidly
eastward to the Appalachian ridge by Sunday Evening. At this
time...an elongated trof begins to push into the plains states
from the Rockies.

At the surface...a ridge axis over the Central CONUS Saturday
Evening shifts eastward to the Appalachian Ridge as well. This
pattern will set the Missouri Ozarks and Southeastern Kansas up for
the warmest day on Sunday that we have seen in about two weeks. It
is likely that afternoon highs on Sunday will reach the lower 60s
over southwestern portions of the CWA and the middle to upper 50s
elsewhere.

The pattern remains progressive into the work week as the
aforementioned trof pushes a cold front of Pacific origin eastward
through the area late Sunday night into early Monday. At this
point...model forecast guidance indicates only light precip
amounts...on the order of a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch. Based on model forecast temperature and thickness profiles
expect any precip to fall as rain and mainly over Central
Missouri.

We begin to see a pattern change in the models on Tuesday toward a
somewhat colder solution as the upper ridge over the Pacific shifts
eastward to the West Coast and amplifies. This will help veer and
strengthen the jet over Southern Canada and the Plains states on
Tuesday with a major upper trof digging southward across the
Laurentian Lakes region. This pattern will however keep the coldest
air well to our east and north...unlike the system that impacted us
last week.

An Alberta clipper type shortwave will dig into the western edge
of this trof late Tuesday into Tuesday evening bringing a brief
shot of cold air southward into the region into early Wednesday.
Both GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement with this pattern and
keep any precipitation values on the order of a few hundredths of
an inch and mainly over Central Missouri as most moisture is of
Pacific origin and Gulf moisture does not really enter the
equation at this time. Surface temperatures Tuesday afternoon in
the lower 40s should preclude and frozen precipitation with a
change for a brief changeover to snow possible as much colder air
pushes southward into the area early Wednesday evening.

After a cold start Wednesday Morning with lows in the lower 20s...
a weak transient upper ridge will allow a slight and brief warming
trend to take hold late Wednesday into Thursday (highs again in
the 40s) with another clipper pushing southward into the area
Thursday evening into Friday with little or no associated weather
but again somewhat colder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

Very tricky forecast this afternoon as a wide variety of
conditions are expected. Currently, IFR is the rule at BBG and SGF
while JLN has improved to VFR. BBG will likely remain IFR (mainly
ceilings) much of this afternoon with some improvement during the
mid/late afternoon hours. JLN/SGF may end up improving to VFR for
a time this afternoon as rainfall decreases and southerly winds
continue to increase. Unfortunately, it looks like there is still
potential for IFR ceilings from time to time, mainly at SGF. As
the cold front moves into the area from the west late this
afternoon, one last round of rainfall (and perhaps a thunderstorm)
will affect the TAF sites. The forecast for tonight gets very
tricky. SREF probabilities are bullish for fog potential. Rules of
thumb suggest another round of IFR ceilings are possible. Have
dropped visibility and hinted at the ceiling potential this
evening and will tweak the forecast based on trends as the
afternoon progresses. VFR is expected tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH until Midnight CST tonight FOR MOZ058-070-071-
     081>083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
138 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND
  LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING REMAINS
  POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
  FROM TABLE ROCK LAKE TO ROLLA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN