Flash Flooding and Flooding in Minnesota, June 16 to 22, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT
THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE GROWING CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM
NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TO NEAR
DAVENPORT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD APPROACH THE INTERSTATE
90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION  HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA ON THE NOSE OF
INCREASING 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA HAS DIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MAKE ITS NORTHWARD SHIFT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM  COMPLEX
WILL WORK EAST WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY FIRING OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON  AND EVENING ENHANCING THE 0-3 KM
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY  IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. 0-6 KM SHEAR FURTHER WEST
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLIER ON BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE OR A LINE WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT IT THE NEIGHBORHOOD AND INCREASING
0-1 KM SHEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A FEW TORNADOES
IN THE LINE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE BOWING
STRUCTURES. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ALSO THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER
URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY PRIME SOME LOCATIONS
FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION  IS WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT SET UP AND WHERE WILL THE
STORM INITIATE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT AND 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUE
IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4KM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH AN THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS. A TROUGH APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SHEAR
ISN/T AS STRONG BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
MORE OF A CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING  WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY TURN A LITTLE
DRIER AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING AND INITIATION OF CONVECTION AT
BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL EARLIER BEGIN TIME OF CONVECTION AT BOTH TAF
SITES...WITH RST POSSIBLY AS SOON AS 22Z AND 00Z AT LSE.
HOWEVER...THIS TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH ONGOING AND MOVEMENT
OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR
NOW...WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT RST AFTER 23Z AND
LSE AFTER 00Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXIST WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE TAF SITES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE
LATEST 16.12Z MODELS LINGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT
BOTH TAF SITES TO AROUND 09Z TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z MODELS ALSO SHOW
POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 09Z TUESDAY TO AROUND 16Z
TUESDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDESTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEED...ESPECIALLY AFTER TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DTJ
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-172100-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
350 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BETWEEN 5 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 7 PM TO 2 AM EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH THE MAIN THREATS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO EXPECT THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DETAILS ON THIS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.

FLASH FLOODING FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OUTSIDE OF THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULE AT THIS TIME.

DTJ