Winter Weather in Utah, June 16 to 18, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1016 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST
UTAH WITH A VORT LOBE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY MOISTENING. NOW WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS OF THE COLD FRONT
AND AN UPPER JET NOSING INTO NORTHERN UTAH...PRECIPITATION HAS
FILLED IN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
STARTING TO BE REPORTED EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP. HOWEVER...BREEZY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LOWER NOW COMPARED
TO WHAT THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

ANOTHER VORT MAX DIVING DOWN THE OREGON COAST AT THIS TIME WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND APPROACH UTAH TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING AND DEEPER SHOT OF COLD AIR
TO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE FILLING IN ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING AROUND A HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS THAN WHAT SOME EARLIER RUNS
WERE SHOWING...THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH INDICATES THAT
THIS SHOULD BE AS GOOD A PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR NORTHERN UTAH AS
HAS BEEN SEEN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOUTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRY SIDE AS THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT MOVES
THROUGH THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT STILL OVER CENTRAL UTAH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...SO ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING 700MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BETWEEN -3 AND
-4C ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ABOVE 8000FT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE STORM WILL LEAVE IN ITS WAKE MUCH DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BRIEF ERRATIC
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LOWER CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT...WITH 04Z TO 09Z BEING
THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR STEADY RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANOTHER BAND OF STEADY RAINFALL IS LIKELY BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABNORMALLY COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO BY TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS UTAH TUESDAY FROM
THE NORTHWEST CORNER TUESDAY MORNING TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL PREVAIL FROM UTAH
COUNTY NORTH TO THE IDAHO BORDER ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WITH RAIN
AND SNOW OVER THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD. FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
BUT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BRING HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ495>498.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...NONE.
&&

CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
946 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-171300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
946 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE SEVERE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH WHERE
FUELS ARE CRITICAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND EASTERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ABOVE 8500 TO 9000 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURES FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX