Cold in Minnesota, January 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1154 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TEMPS
ALREADY BELOW ZERO. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PUT A HALT TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW TEMPS
TO STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE. STILL WOULD LIKE TO INVESTIGATE SOME OF
THE OTHER MODEL RUNS COMING IN THIS EVENING TO SEE ABOUT ANY
CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SNOW HAS
BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE AN INCREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

SFC LOW HAS MOVED INTO ERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD
ADVECTION/CLOUDS/FLURRIES LEFT IN ITS WAKE. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO THE NWRN CWA AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA. A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE NEAR LEECH AND CASS LAKE
AND MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE TWIN
PORTS WHERE A FEW FLAKES ARE FALLING AT THE OFFICE...OUTSIDE THAT
IS. UPSTREAM...WARM ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING OVER ERN DAKOTAS IN
ADVANCE OF SFC LOW IN NWRN NODAK. INITIALLY DRY LOW LAYERS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE PREVENTING MUCH PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY ESE OVERNIGHT FROM NWRN NODAK TO
SWRN MN BY 06Z...TO NE IA BY 12Z. ENSEMBLE OF SFC PRESS TRACKS
HAVE LOW SPREAD SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF SFC LOW IS HIGH. THE
MAJORITY OF STRONGEST FORCING OCCURS SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
THERE IS ENOUGH OMEGA IN THE SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR
TWO...ISOLATED 3 INCHES...ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE CWA. THERE HAS
BEEN A TREND TO NOT ONLY A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...BUT ALSO A
SHIFTING SOUTH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. EVENING FCST MAY HAVE TO
SHIFT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH WHICH MAY LOWER AMOUNTS EVEN MORE.

TOMORROW...SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY
IN THE MORNING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FLOW EXISTS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. TWO FAVORED AREAS FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE IN THE LEE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. A RESIDUAL POOL
OF WEAK OMEGA IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA AND 925/85H LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST INCREASING INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS RETURN TO BLO
CLIMO LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH A NNWLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...SOME LES SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DELTA T IS NOT FAVORABLE. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...A POTENT SFC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS WILL
BRING A WARM FRONT TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
FROM W TO E. REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING PCPN AS IT IS NO LONGER
SUPPORTED BY ANY MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE BORDERLAND. MODEL DIFFERENCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE GFS WITH THE LOW CENTER NEAR ISLE ROYALE BY
12Z THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT IN SW ONTARIO. THIS HAS AN
IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF/SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE FA. A GENERAL
2 TO 4 INCH TOTAL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CONSENSUS APPROACH.
ALSO...THE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL MENTION PATCHY BLSN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH AND A
MENTION OF PATCHY BLSN WHERE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO BE TIGHTEST.
MORE LES SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A WNWLY
FLOW...BUT DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING AND PLENTY OF ICE ON LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL. BIG DIFFERENCES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS MOVING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HIGH
PRESSURE. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH. QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. VSBYS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE
ACROSS KBRD AND KHYR...AND SOME MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   7  13  -2  14 /  20  10   0  60
INL  -5   9 -12  17 /  10  10   0  70
BRD  11  16  -6  18 /  80  20   0  60
HYR  11  16  -2  15 /  60  30   0  30
ASX  10  16   0  16 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
427 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-141230-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
427 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING..AND
NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS PATH. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA...1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO LOWER ST
CROIX VALLEY...AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN SAWYER COUNTY WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM
THE BEMIDJI AREA...TO GRAND RAPIDS...TO CLOQUET...AND TO HAYWARD
AND THE PHILLIPS AREA. THERE MIGHT BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD LOWER THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD LINGER ALONG AND NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MEASURE AND/OR ESTIMATE
SNOWFALL AND REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LSZ121-140>148-141230-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
427 PM CST MON JAN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME
NORTHWEST THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EVEN MORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND RESULTING WAVES
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)