A strong but fast moving storm system developed across southeast South Dakota during the early morning hours of Monday, February 17th. A large area of precipitation developed in southwest Minnesota prior to sunrise, and moved rapidly eastward across eastern Minnesota during the morning.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
A strong but fast moving storm system developed across southeast South Dakota during the early morning hours of Monday, February 17th. A large area of precipitation developed in southwest Minnesota prior to sunrise, and moved rapidly eastward across eastern Minnesota during the morning. Snowfall rates between 6 am and 10 am were nearly 1.5 inches per hour. The snow quickly tapered off by late morning as the storm exited across western Wisconsin. Locally 3 to 6 inches fell in a small area from the southwest suburbs of the Twin Cities, eastward toward west central Wisconsin. The heaviest occurred in Chanhassen where locally 6.4 inches fell in less than 6 hours. What made this storm particularly dangerous was it developed prior to the morning commute in the Twin Cities, and it finally moved off to the east by the late morning. The warning had been issued due to the heaviest snowfall and rates coinciding during the peak traffic period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 11:59 PM CST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
NOT TOO MUCH TO UPDATE THIS EVENING WITH REGARD TO THE IMPENDING
SNOW STORM. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS AT THIS LATE STAGE IN THE GAME. MESO MODELS ARE LESS
THAN BULLISH WHICH IS A BIT STRANGE. DEEP FORCING...STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND A BIT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD EASILY
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW PER GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AM CERTAINLY
SIDING TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION BASED ON THE INFRARED APPEARANCE
OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A VERY IMPRESSIVE 8 C/KM.
NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE ALSO SEEN IN WYOMING EARLIER
THIS EVENING.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ALREADY IN
PLACE. RADAR ECHOES ARE PROOF OF THIS...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LAYERS WILL STILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO SATURATE. ONCE THINGS
DO FULLY SATURATE...IT WILL NOT TAKE ANY ADDITIONAL TIME TO GET
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A BAND OF WAA SNOW AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SHOW EARLY MONDAY IF SATURATION TAKES PLACE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THIS IS SOMETHING THE HI-RES MODELS REFUSE TO
GENERATE...PART OF THE REASON FOR LOWER SNOW TOTALS.
THE HEART OF THE STORM WILL ARRIVE DURING RUSH HOUR WITH RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...SO TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION NUMBERS ARE KIND
OF A MOOT POINT. GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER...THE ODDS
OF THIS SYSTEM BEING UNDER-FORECASTED ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN BEING
OVER-FORECASTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A NICE UPPER TROUGH WORKING
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND ON TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. LOOKING AT THE
RAP H4-H3 PV ANALYSIS...THERE ARE TWO MAIN CORES WITH THIS
TROUGH...ONE UP OVER SE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE OTHER WORKING
ACROSS SRN IDAHO. AT THE SFC...THESE TWO PV FEATURES HAVE LED TO THE
GENERATION OF A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE MAIN
ONE BEING A 990 MB LOW MOVING INTO SW MANITOBA WITH A SECONDARY 995
MB LOW ALONG THE ERN WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER. FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IT WILL BE THESE FEATURES THAT WILL BE THE IMPETUS BEHIND
THE QUICK HITTING SNOW EVENT THAT WILL HAPPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE HIGH...WITH THE TWO
PV FEATURES BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO ONE OVER MN MONDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT ARE LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHEN/HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL SEE WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST ISSUE
DEALS WITH WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...DRY SE LOW LEVEL FLOW EMANATING
FROM AN ARCTIC HIGH OFF TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR /WHICH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS IS NEARLY FROZEN OVER/. THE OTHER
ISSUE DEALS WITH THE TWO WAVES OF FORCING/PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THOSE SOURCES OF FORCING LOOKING TO COME IN THE FORM OF AN INITIAL
WARM ADVECTIVE PUSH AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE COMING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS...BASED ON HRRR/HOPWRF AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS IS THAT
THE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM UP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...THEN TRY TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/ERN
MN THIS EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PRECIP DEVELOPING
IN THE MPX AREA UNTIL AFTER 6Z...AS IT TAKES TIME TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOONS DRY AIR. AS THIS INITIAL PUSH IS MOVING INTO WRN WI
AROUND 9Z...FORCING FROM THE MAIN UPPER WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP
FILLING IN OUT IN WRN MN. EVENTUALLY...THESE TWO BITS OF FORCING
MELD INTO ONE OVER WRN WI...WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE STILL
INDICATED.
CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST WERE TO SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL
TONIGHT AND SLOW SOME ITS DEPARTURE FOR MONDAY TO BE MORE IN LINE
WITH WHAT CURRENT HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOR TIMING. ALSO BUMPED DOWN
SOME QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...MAINLY IN WRN WI. PROBLEM HERE IS THAT
THE RAPID PACE WITH WHICH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANYONE TO GET UP OVER 6 INCHES.
GIVEN HIGH AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE ON QPF AMOUNTS...THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE RAW OUTPUT...WHICH RESULTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM AROUND 1 INCH BY THE SODAK BORDER...WITH 5-6 INCHES OUT
TOWARD EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH...AND 3-5 INCHES FOR THE CITIES.
LEFT WARNING HEADLINE UNCHANGED AS THE TIMING FOR THIS SNOW WILL
COINCIDE WITH MORNING COMMUTES. FOR THE ADVY...ADDED NICOLLET...BLUE
EARTH...AND FARIBAULT COUNTIES SO THAT NOW THE WEST EDGE OF THE ADVY
COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE WRN EDGE OF THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 3 INCHES OR MORE.
FOR MONDAY...WHAT WILL BE INTERESTING ABOUT THIS SNOW IS THAT AS IT
MOVES OUT...WE WILL BE REPLACING IT WITH WARMER...NOT COLDER AIR.
WITH THAT SAID...DID NUDGE HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S FOR WRN
WI...WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL ENSURE AN OVERCAST DAYLIGHT
PERIOD. STILL HAVE HIGHS UP NEAR 40 SW OF THE MN RIVER...THOUGH THIS
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. DID FAVOR THE HIGHS OUT WEST CLOSER TO THE MOS
GUIDANCE...AS RAW MODEL OUTPUT LOOKS TO BE GIVING TOO MUCH
IMPORTANCE ON THE SNOWPACK...THE EDGE OF WHICH IS LESS THAN 100
MILES AWAY FROM THE SW CWA THANKS TO A SNOW FREE LANDSCAPE ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO SRN SODAK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
THE LONGER TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN FROM FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY... AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOW WE GET FROM POINT A
TO POINT B ISN/T ENTIRELY CLEAR... AND THERE ARE WIDELY VARYING
DETAILS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL PART OF THE
LONGER RANGE IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY... BUT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY AND HAS
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR IN ITS WAKE... SO NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER... A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME... AND SETUP
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY SPLIT OUR AREA
WITH THE BEST FORCING... TAKING THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NORTH WHILE THE SOUTHERN WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE STAY TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER... THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED QUITE A BIT OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS... AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD. SO... AT THIS POINT THE UNFORTUNATE PATH OF
LEAST RESISTANCE IS TO HAVE SHOTGUN POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK... INITIALLY WITH THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
SYSTEM... THEN WITH THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP INTO
THE AREA BY SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAN
SOME OF THIS UP IF/WHEN SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT... BUT
WITH THE PATTERN RE-AMPLIFYING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014
ECHOES ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR...BUT THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE IS CAUSING IT TO EVAPORATE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE
SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SNOW SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN
08-10Z. IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE INTENSE WITH LIFR CONDS IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BETWEEN 10Z TO 16Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
DURING THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING
AND AMOUNTS IS MODERATE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT
WILL OCCUR IS HIGH. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NOT MUCH DEVIATION OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THE GENERAL
DISCUSSION WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE
HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 13Z. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN
INCH AN HOUR. AN AWW WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND W 10 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND S 5-15 KT.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR IN -SN. WIND W 7-12KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ042>045-049-050-058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
059>063-068>070-077-078.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFFHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 942 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014 MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028- 180345- DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS- BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA- KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA- REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH- WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK- ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE- 942 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 3 AM. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE HINDERED AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS REACH 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER WISCONSIN AND THE LOWER TOTALS NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SNOWFALL REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED MONDAY. BORGHOFF
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Several observations of 5 to 7 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
Several observations of 4 to 6 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
Several observations of 3 to 5 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
Several observations of 4 to 6 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
Several observations of 3 to 5 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
Several observations of 4 to 6 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
Several observations of 4 to 6 inches of snow fell in a short period of time during the morning of February 17. It happened during rush hour that caused traffic accidents and a longer than normal morning commute.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 504146, 504147, 504148, 504149, 504150, 504151, 504152.