Tornadoes and Hail in Kentucky, October 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2014

Updated the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends and expected
convective evolution for later this afternoon.  Radar returns
continue to blossom this morning as isentropic ascent associated
with a 40-knot low-level jet has ramped up across the region.  This
trend will likely continue through the late morning hours, as this
activity shifts east into the Bluegrass region of Kentucky.  A
marginally severe hail threat will accompany this initial activity.

Attention will then turn to the west as a weak surface boundary and
strong vort max pushes into the region this afternoon.  The latest
HRRR has the best handle on the current convection, thus will lean
on its solution.  It depicts a ribbon of surface-based instability
developing along this surface front.  Will have to see how this
morning activity plays out to see if that instability will be
realized, but given almost all the model solutions are suggesting
some amount of SBCAPE along this boundary, confidence is increasing
that we will see at least some.  Therefore, expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop along this front, some being
strong to locally severe.  Low freezing levels will make for a hail
threat and strong winds just off the surface will also support
isolated damaging winds.  Given the low-level speed shear (0-1km
shear of 30 knots), an isolated tornado is also possible, especially
if storms can remain semi-discrete.  Updated products out shortly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2014

An intense 500mb closed low will continue to sit in place just south
of Hudson's Bay through late Tuesday, bringing broad cyclonic flow
across much of the eastern half of the nation, including the Lower
Ohio Valley. Several fast moving upper disturbances embedded within
this flow will bring periods of unsettled weather through late
Tuesday.

The first in this series brought scattered thunderstorms late last
night to central Kentucky, and should be exiting the region towards
dawn. A second system is currently bringing showers and embedded
thunderstorms to central Missouri. This system will spread showers
and scattered thunderstorms that may begin to overspread southern
Indiana and western Kentucky by mid morning, and the entire region
by noon. Finally, a third disturbance may arrive by late afternoon,
bringing additional thunderstorms late this afternoon or evening
across central and southern Kentucky.

Forecast soundings for this afternoon show modest instability
coupled with speed shear and some directional shear, leading to a
possibility of severe storms with a potential for damaging wind
gusts. Low freezing levels below 10kft may allow some storms to
produce small to marginally severe hail should enough surface
instability be realized. Currently, our southern counties, with a
potential for greater surface based instability, have the best
chance for strong storms during mid-to late afternoon.

Overall, any showers and storms today will have a hit or miss flavor
to them, but overall, most locations will see some rain and thus
likely pops are warranted. Skies will be variably cloudy with some
periods of sun. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with
some higher gusts by late morning, with some gusts up to 25 to 30
mph this afternoon across the Bluegrass and our eastern counties.
Highs will range from the lower 70s south to near 70 north.

Quiet weather is expected overnight with partly cloudy skies. For
Tuesday, yet another disturbance will approach, leading to scattered
to numerous showers and a risk of isolated thunderstorms developing
by afternoon. The NAM forecasts a weak surface low to move north of
the Ohio River Tuesday afternoon. This will cause surface winds to
back to the south, setting up directional shear as well as speed
shear. Strong storms are possible again Tuesday afternoon, if any
surface-based instability develops.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2014

...Excessive Rainfall Possible Late this Week...

Tuesday night the last in a series of upper level shortwaves will be
departing the region along with the broad upper trough.  This will
result in showers clearing the area from west to east Tues night.
We'll then see a dry mostly sunny day for Wed.  After starting the
day in the 50s, high temps will warm into the lower 70s for highs
Wed afternoon.  This will be the pick day of the long term period as
the pattern will become active once again for late in the week.

Remnants of tropical cyclone Simon will result in a very moist setup
along a slow moving frontal boundary late in the week.  We'll first
see the sfc boundary start to sharpen and move north through our
region as a weak warm front Wed night bringing slight chances for
convection west of I-65.  Showers/t-storms will increase in coverage
on Thurs as better moisture and instability arrive.  Precipitable
water (PWAT) values will rise to 1.6-1.8 inches starting late Thurs
which is higher than normal for this time of year.  As the frontal
boundary elongates and sinks south through the Ohio Valley Thurs
night/Friday, we'll see multiple waves of showers/storms some heavy
at times.  This should provide a good soaking of rain to the
region.  Some minor flooding problems might become an issue if
several cells train over a particular area.  However overall the
area is fairly dry at this point and most of the heavy rain will
likely be absorbed.

The latest 0Z GFS and 0Z GEM, push the frontal boundary well to our
south Fri night with sfc high pressure and cooler temps working into
the area for the weekend.  However, 12Z ECMWF and 0Z GFS ensembles
are much slower to pull the boundary south and this would result in
a wetter, warmer weekend.  Due to multiple drastically different
model solns, confidence is pretty low in the weekend forecast.
Since previous iterations of the GFS have been slower in pushing the
boundary south and since the 0Z GFS ensemble data is slower with a
southward progression, will continue a fairly wet forecast through
the weekend with 30% chances of precip.

As for temperatures for the latter half of the week, high temps
solidly in the 70s mid week will drop back into the mid 60s to low
70s as the rainy pattern sets up for the latter portion of the
week.  Low temps will generally range from the mid 40s to lower 60s
with the coolest nights looking to be Fri and Sat nights.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2014

Several fast moving disturbances will bring variable weather to the
area this morning through tonight. A disturbance will move across
southern Indiana this morning. Occasional light showers will move
across the TAF sites from mid-morning through the noon hours. With
the intermittent nature of these showers, will place TEMPO groups in
for the most likely times of these showers.

Any ceilings will remain VFR through the mid-morning hours. South
southwest winds will continue through the mid-morning hours at
around 8 to 10kt. Later today, southwest winds will increase to
around 10 to 15 kt, with some gusts over 20kt this afternoon.

The next wave will move through during the early afternoon hours.
Showers, with some isolated thunderstorms, will be likely at some
point later this afternoon, with the greatest threat of
thunderstorms across our south towards BWG. Some of these
thunderstorms near BWG may become strong with gusty winds and
isolated small hail.

At SDF and LEX, rain chances will diminish towards 00z Tuesday, but
at BWG, rain chances will continue through the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
426 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-070830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
426 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014 /326 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE REGION MOST LIKELY TO SEE STRONG STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

JSD/AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
952 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

INZ090>092-KYZ030-061425-
CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-HARRISON IN-JEFFERSON KY-
952 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
PENNY SIZE HAIL...

AT 950 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORYDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND PENNY SIZE HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  SHIVELY...
  LOUISVILLE...
  NEW ALBANY...
  JEFFERSONVILLE...
  LANESVILLE AND LOTTICK CORNER...
  EDWARDSVILLE...
  CLARKSVILLE AND CEMENTVILLE...
  OAK PARK AND LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
133 AND 137.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
0 AND 6B.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 123.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
1 AND 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 8570 3822 8560 3812 8614 3822 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 250DEG 43KT 3818 8606

EER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
959 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

INZ076-077-084-089-090-061430-
CRAWFORD IN-HARRISON IN-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-WASHINGTON IN-
959 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
HALF INCH HAIL...

AT 955 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENGLISH...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND HALF INCH HAIL...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ENGLISH...
  GRANTSBURG AND BROWNSTOWN...
  TEMPLE AND CURBY...
  MARENGO AND HOGTOWN...
  DEPAUW AND HARDINSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 8619 3835 8608 3821 8665 3832 8668
      3834 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1359Z 247DEG 46KT 3829 8656

EER

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