Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, October 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
424 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION TAKES
PLACE HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE DURING THE PERIOD. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TODAY FOR STRONG CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS HAVE GONE
THE EXTRA MILE AND PRODUCED SOME HAIL DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 8K FEET. WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND PEAK HEATING
OCCURRING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH. WILL LOOK FOR THE
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR...BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WITH WATCHES/WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH LATE DAY
HEATING OCCURS. AFTER THIS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THE NEXT MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR STORMS IS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT APPROACHES. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
DEVELOP CONVECTION. WHILE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...A BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM RUNS WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME BEING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS PERSISTENT IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS HAS NOT DEPICTED THIS. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT FROM
NW TO SE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SPENDING THE LONGEST TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEEING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS IN A STABLE
AIR MASS. SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL STILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN. AT
THIS POINT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BUT RATHER WEAK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST TO START THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE DIVERGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL SHOW A
VERY DEEP AND LARGE MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A NODE OF THIS WILL BE SWEEPING NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT. AS
HEIGHTS SLOWLY START TO COME UP OVER KENTUCKY A SMALLER TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND SEND IT ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FAST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...
THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER LOW THAN THE GEM AND GFS.
THIS STRENGTH ALSO MANIFESTS ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OVER KENTUCKY AS A
BIT MORE RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAN THE OTHERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE GFS SEEMS MOST OUT OF STEP WITH ITS PATTERN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS FLAT AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER KENTUCKY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF...SUPPORTED BY THE GEM...STARTS TO BRING A FAST
MOVING AND QUICKLY DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
WITH A SWEEP OF ENERGY PRESSING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FAVOR THE
MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THEN LEAN MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AMPLE
MOISTURE...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEETS UP WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIFT
INTO KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY
OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM TO THE SOUTH MAKES
FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AGAIN AS A BONA FIDE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHER
PLAINS. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL THEN LOOK TO SWING ITS ELONGATED
COLD FRONT INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT BETWEEN SEASONS THIS EXTENDED...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT WITH A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE
DUE TO EXTRA CLOUDS AND PCPN AROUND.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE AN ADEQUATE START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GIVEN
THE FRONTS NEARBY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIODS DID NOT DO TOO MUCH
ADJUSTING TO THE TEMPERATURES AS THE TERRAIN IMPACT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MUTED...EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A MODERATE RIDGE
TO VALLEY SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

A COUPLE OF LINES OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z
FROM WEST TO EAST. A LOT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ELEVATED IN
NATURE...SO ONLY A TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAINLY A VFR STATUS REIGNING. THE SECOND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 20 AND 01Z. STRONGER
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS LINE...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. LOWER CEILINGS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE
EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-071100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
435 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MANY LOCATIONS...MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THEM MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MOST PERSISTENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...OR FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
439 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

KYZ050-058>060-108-111-062130-
MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-POWELL-ESTILL-WOLFE-LEE-
439 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 530
PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

   MENIFEE...
   SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
   POWELL...
   NORTHWESTERN WOLFE...
   EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL LEE AND
   NORTHERN ESTILL.

AT 439 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
FOX...OR 13 MILES WEST OF IRVINE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...PALMER AROUND
445 PM EDT...KIMBRELL AROUND 450 PM EDT...SPOUT SPRINGS AROUND 455 PM
EDT...VAUGHNS MILL AROUND 500 PM EDT...STANTON AROUND 505 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8354 3774 8348 3766 8410 3772 8410
      3774 8409 3785 8408 3783 8407 3785 8406
      3784 8401 3787 8403 3787 8401 3789 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 252DEG 38KT 3776 8416

SHALLENBERGER