High Surf in Hawaii, September 13 to 16, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW
WEEK...ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
THE ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES WILL DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG SURPRISES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME
OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING SEA BREEZES...AND OTHERS VARIABLE WINDS.
IN ANY CASE...CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LIGHT WIND REGIME. THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED.

THE MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ SHOWS HIGHER PW MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH...WHILE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS. NO INVERSION IS EVIDENT ON THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM
LIHUE AND HILO...BUT THE MODELS DON/T SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH...BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS...EXPECT MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAN WE SAW TODAY.

THE RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS PRODUCING THE LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...AND CLEARING AT NIGHT. NO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS
EXPECTED...SO VOG FROM THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

A NEW HIGH WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE DATELINE DURING OF
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
TO GRADUALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT AS
THE ISLANDS LIE WITHIN AN LIGHT WIND REGIME. CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WILL GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THOUGH THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCAL MVFR IN -SHRA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE VERY LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL HAS BEEN SLOW TO BUILD AT THE
NEAR SHORE BUOYS. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE MORE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST SWELLS FACING THE EASTERN END OF THE
STATE. THE ELEVATED SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A SHORT-LIVED MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...BURKE