Drought in Hawaii, March 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
815 PM HST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD REACH KAUAI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
IS HIGHEST ON SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL REACH THE EASTERN ISLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DATA SHOWS A STRONG DEEP LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
N-CPAC AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE FRONT IS LOCATED AROUND 150 MILES NW OF KAUAI...WHICH IS
KEEPING WINDS FROM THE S AND SW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MODELS SHOW FAIR
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD REACH
THE W EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TONIGHT AND BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI COUNTY.

LINES OF PREFRONTAL CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING INTO OAHU AND MAUI FROM
THE S...BRINGING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS. AS THE
FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE ALOHA STATE...MORE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP OVER OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. AS THE AIR MASS
SLOWLY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...HEAVIER
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY GFS AND ECMWF...REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT DESCRIBING THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE FROPA WHICH
REACHES KAUAI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT THEN MOVING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT MOVEMENT WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE E HALF
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE PARENT LOW FAR N WILL BE LIFTING NE. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT WELL N OF THE ISLANDS.

THE LOWER MOTION OF THE FROPA WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE E ISLANDS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
N/NE WINDS WILL RETURNING OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS WEATHER PATTERN TO ESTABLISH
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW/FRONT SYSTEM
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS
OVER KAUAI LATE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OAHU SATURDAY MORNING AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAKER SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WIDESPREAD VFR
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ON KAUAI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE AN AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
A VERY LARGE WNW SWELL IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SAT MORNING
ALONG N AND W FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...SPREADING
INTO MOLOKAI AND MAUI BY MIDDAY SAT...AND REACHING THE LEEWARD BIG
ISLAND SHORES BY SAT EVENING. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
WARNING LEVELS FOR THE N AND W FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND SHORES.
THIS SWELL WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT SAT INTO SUN AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LEEWARD SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND MAY ALSO APPROACH WARNING LEVELS ON SUN.

ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LARGE WNW SWELL WILL
BRING SEAS OVER 10 FEET FOR THE AREAS EXPOSED TO THE WNW SWELL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
KONA-KOHALA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...RYSHKO