High Wind in Hawaii, February 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI FEB 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH KAUAI LATE
TONIGHT...THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEAST DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLIES AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHEST SUNDAY WHEN THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE EASTERN ISLANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE
STATE. THIS INCOMING FRONT HAS REACHED THE BUOY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY THE REPORTED WIND
SHIFT. THEREFORE THE FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH KAUAI LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THAT ISLAND.

THERE IS ALSO A PATCH OF PREFRONTAL CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MAUI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS
ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AS THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS RATHER STABLE. BUT AS THE FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE
STATE...MORE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT
OVER THE ISLANDS. AGAIN...THIS FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI TONIGHT THEN
ADVANCES ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY...REACHING THE
BIG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT WILL
SLOW SOMEWHAT WHEN IT REACHES THE EASTERN ISLANDS. THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN...FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CERTAINLY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN ISLANDS. STILL BELIEVE THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION DOES
NOT WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.

THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE AS WELL. MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED
FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE WINDWARD AREAS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AGAIN IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH GFS HOLDING ON TO TRADE WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS
OVER KAUAI LATE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OAHU SATURDAY MORNING AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAKER SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WIDESPREAD VFR
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ON KAUAI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE AN AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
A MUCH LARGER WNW SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING LEVELS FOR THE
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS PENDING SWELL WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AND LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LEEWARD SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY SEE ADVISORY
LEVELS SURF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY APPROACH
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COAST WATERS...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LARGE WNW
SWELL WILL PRETTY MUCH BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
CONDITIONS FOR THE EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH
SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...BEDAL