Several clusters of thunderstorms developed across the Upper Savannah River Valley and the north Georgia mountains during the afternoon. One thunderstorm produced brief hail over Habersham County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Several clusters of thunderstorms developed across the Upper Savannah River Valley and the north Georgia mountains during the afternoon. One thunderstorm produced brief hail over Habersham County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 9, 1:50 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...THE 18Z LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTBY CREEPING INTO
THE WRN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM GRAHAM NC TO FRANKLIN GA. AREA RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TSTMS FIRING ROUGHLY ALONG THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT ACRS NE GA. WITH CAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG...AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...SOME STORMS ARE PRODUCING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STILL EXPECT ANY PULSE SEVERE THREAT TO BE
FAIRLY LOW. STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE TROUBLE MAKING INROADS INTO
SC...DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS.
I BUMPED UP POP TO 50% IN NE GA COUNTIES TO LINE UP WITH RADAR
TRENDS. TEMPS WERE ALSO BUMPED UP A DEG OR TWO ACRS THE AREA BASED
ON LATEST METARS.
TONIGHT...QUASI-ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND HELP ACTIVATE A
WARM FRONT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STRENGTHEN SWLY
850 MB FLOW ATOP THE CWFA...AND ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
KEEPING A LINGERING SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP ACRS THE NC MTNS
LOOKS REASONABLE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACRS THE
ENTIRE AREA. SO EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...PRIMARILY IN
THE 50S TO LWR 60S.
FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACRS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SFC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING
ACTIVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON HIGHER DWPTS AND
SBCAPE ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA. SWLY FLOW LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND
HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
MTNS. BLENDING IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...POPS WERE BUMPED UP A
CATEGORY ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...RANGING FROM SLGT CHC ALONG SE
BORDER TO LIKELY ALONG TN BORDER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT...AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SHOWS JUST GENERAL THUNDER. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (MAINLY MID 60S TO MID 70S MTNS AND UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S PIEDMONT).
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THROUGH THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
AFFECTING MAINLY WESTERN NC. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IMPULSES
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SAT. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY SAT
WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND PERHAPS APPROACH THE
I-85 CORRIDOR SAT EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES INTO
A COLD AIR DAMMING POSSITION SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BACKDOOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THE WEDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO HOLD FAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE UNSETTLED. THE
GFS AND EC HAVE QUITE A BIT OF QPF RESPONSE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
OVER WESTERN NC ON SAT BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTHWARD SAT NIGHT. WILL
ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER WESTERN NC FRI NIGHT. AS THE
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHES ON SAT...WILL THEN RAMP POPS UP TO LOW
LIKELY ON SAT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING
INTO THE PIEDMONT AREAS SAT AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT SCT/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH ONLY
WEAK/MODERATE CAPE VALUES. AS THE WEDGE SETS UP ON SUN...PRECIP WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER PIEDMONT AREAS. WITH WEDGE CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY...WILL FAVOR MODEL RAWBLEND FOR TEMPS WHICH INDICATES WELL
BELOW CLIMO MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF A STRONG FROPA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE AND WED. HAVE LEANED
MORE TOWARDS TO THE PROGRESSIVE GFS/CMC SOLUTION THAT ARE FAVORED BY
THE WPC.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUN NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SWLY BY MON AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD...THE FASTER GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUE...AND
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY AROUND 00Z WED WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED NEUTRALLY TILED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z WED...OFFSHORE BY THU 00Z. THE OLD 00Z ECMWF IS AROUND
18-24HRS SLOWER...WITH THE CMC COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. AN UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THU INTO FRI.
AT THE SURFACE...A PERSISTENT SURFACE WEDGE OVER THE CWA WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE CENTER OF PARENT HIGH
MIGRATES OFF THE NE COAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE FASTER GFS BRINGS A S-N ORIENTED FRONT TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA BY AROUND 12Z TUE AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS AROUND 24HRS
SLOWER SUGGESTING THE FROPA WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 12Z WED.
THE CMC HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION. HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS FEATURING 60/70 POPS ON TUE AND
RAMPING DOWN THOUGH TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THE NEW 12S GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL 0-3KM BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40-50KTS
WITH SBCAPE AROUND 300-500J/KG DURING THE FROPA. ALSO...PW VALUES
WILL REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ECMWF HAS
LESSER DEGREE OF SBCAPE/WIND SHEAR. IN ANY RATE...THERE IS THE TREAT
OF HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE ON THE HWO GIVEN BETTER MODELS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MON/TUE WITH AROUND 3-5 DEGREES NORMAL WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...WITH LIGHT
SE TO SW WIND. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS AGAIN THIS
EVENING DUE TO CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO THE WEST. FRIDAY MORNING...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MORE VFR-BASED CUMULUS. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS. ISOLD SHRA AND
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACRS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AFTN. BUT THAT IS BEYOND
THE 18Z PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...LLVL FLOW IS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW...ADVECTING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE IS ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND WEST OF KAVL/KGSP/KLUX LINE. SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ACRS ERN TN AND NE GA. THERE IS A CHC
THAT SOME WILL GET INVOF THE KAVL/KAND SITES. LESS CERTAIN TO
KGMU/KGSP. AT TIME OF ISSUANCE...I WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO ADD
MENTION OR TEMPO...BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAKE QUICK AMD SOON.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE...BUT LINGERING SHRA MAY CONTINUE
ACRS THE NC MTNS WITHIN MOIST SW FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
FOGGIER...AS HIGHER DEWPTS ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WILL ADD SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY/KAND/KAVL. KAVL HAS BEST CHC OF IFR VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/CIGS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...ARKHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1039 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-004- 101445- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- 1039 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ002- 003-005>014-019-101445- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE- CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG- CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1039 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. ARK
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
GAZ010-017-091900-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
209 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HABERSHAM AND SOUTH
CENTRAL RABUN COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...
AT 208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HELEN...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CLEVELAND...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
BATESVILLE...
CLARKESVILLE...
SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.
LAT...LON 3478 8338 3456 8346 3460 8365 3463 8365
3466 8367 3468 8365 3471 8365 3473 8363
3476 8363 3479 8368 3480 8367
LGThe Greer radar (KGSP), 120 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:48 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter and the public reported 3/4 inch to nickel size hail north of Clarkesville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, October 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 544627.