Winter Storm in Georgia, February 11 to 13, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE DRY AND WARMING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EST TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE DIFFERENCE PRODUCT
INDICATES MID LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO PREVAIL
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS OF WESTERN NC WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
BEING OBSERVED.  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW
FREEZING LEVELS REGIONWIDE LEADING TO POTENTIAL BLACK ICE HAZARDS
FROM EARLIER MELTED SNOWFALL.  DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE OVERALL
WITH THIS UPDATE AS LATEST GUIDANCE REFLECTS LITTLE CHANGE WITH
REGARD TO QPF/POP/TIMING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. LATEST STORM
TOTAL ICE/SNOWFALL GRAPHICS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY VIA THE
WEB/SMEDIA AND NOW REFLECT TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 245 PM...RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN
IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE UPSTATE. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATED ONLY A NARROW BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS. AS THE CLOUD DECK THICKNESSES DECREASE AND FORCING TRACKS
EAST...EMBEDDED SNOW BANDS SHOULD WEAKEN AND SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT. IN ADDITION...WET BULB TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE GA AND
THE UPSTATE HAVE RECOVERED SLIGHTLY TO THE L30S. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...THE COVERAGE OF SNOW BANDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BY 4 PM. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A 1035 MB
HIGH WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGE SW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA. LLVL NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...LIKELY ADVECTING LOWER DWPTS ACROSS THE
CWA. AT THE MID LEVELS...A TROF WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
ARKLATX REGION LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BLENDED SATELLITE PW INDICATES A POOL OF 170-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS NE...DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP EASILY AS LLVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...ESPECIALLY AT 290 K...SPREADS ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. ALSO...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 KT JET WILL PIVOT
OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN A STRONG BAND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. I
WILL TIME POPS FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 9Z. BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS...PRECIP SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L20S WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS TO U20S ELSEWHERE. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...WITH AN INCH
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...LIGHT AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.

WED...THE H5 TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF WEST OF THE REGION AND
STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE H85 LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON...A WEAK WARM NOSE
INCREASES FROM THE EAST. USING A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE WARM LAYER MAY PARTIAL MELT PRECIP ABOVE H9. HOWEVER...SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE U20S ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE
DAY. PRECIP IMPACTED BY THE WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SN/IP...WITH FZRA ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN TIER. SNOWFALL MAY
RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES WHERE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM...WINTER STORM WILL STILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WED NITE AND ACROSS
THE AREA THU. AT THE SFC...THE MILLER-A LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING UP THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WED NITE THEN UP TO NEW ENGLAND ON THU. AS THE LOW
MOVES UP THE COAST A WARM NOSE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF I-85
WED EVENING THEN DISAPPEARS WED NITE AS COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. THAT SAID...A WARM NOSE WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE
SW LATE WED NITE INTO THU. OF COURSE...PRECIP WILL BECOMING TO AN
END RAPIDLY THU AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. STILL...AS QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD...ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR SRN CWFA...TO 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF NE GA AND THE UPSTATE...AND 2 TO 6...MAINLY
WITH A WEST TO EAST GRADIENT...ACROSS NC. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH WILL OCCUR OVER SRN
GREENWOOD...CHESTER AND UNION NC COUNTIES. LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILL
ACCUMULATE OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES INTO ELBERT...
ABBEVILLE AND LAURENS COUNTIES. LIGHT ICE COULD ALSO ACCUMULATE OVER
THE SERN SECTIONS OF YORK...MECKLENBURG...CABARRUS AND ROWAN
COUNTIES.

A CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS FRI NITE. AT THE SFC...THE CLIPPER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
FRIDAY NITE AS WELL. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SOME PRECIP WILL FALL
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHC WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WHICH
TAPERS OFF BY DAYBREAK SAT. HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS AS WELL.
TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENUF FOR PRECIP TO START AS SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS
IF PRECIP MOVES IN EARLY ENUF. HOWEVER...PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY
RAIN ON FRIDAY...THEN CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRI NITE AS COLD
AIR FILTERS IN. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS. AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EST TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY EARLY SUNDAY...ANOTHER HEALTHY
LOOKING H5 SHORTWAVE ROTATES BACK DOWN OVER THE CWFA. BEYOND
SUN...THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT. TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD ON
TUES...ANOTHER H5 TROF APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST EARLY SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING AGAIN IN ITS
WAKE FOR MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT YET ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CWFA EARLY TUES AND MOVE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY
LATE TUES. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FCST WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT AND SUN OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE CWFA AND SLIGHT TO SOLID CHANCE FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHEN THE STRONGER...MORE MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS
SHOULD STEADILY WARM THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER PRECIPITATION BAND EXITS TO THE
EAST.  THIS WILL YIELD VFR CIGS/VISB WITH NE WINDS IN THE 8-10KTS
RANGE.  CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT COMMENCES ATOP THE INTRUDING CAD WEDGE.
THUS...KEPT PREVIOUS MENTION OF SN WITH MVFR VISB/CIG AT 12Z BEFORE
INCREASING SN RATES WARRANTED IFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS NEARING 25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH
PTYPE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY SN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNPL LATE IN THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE AS LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  WITH THAT SAID...FCST SOUNDING
INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BEING POSSIBLE AT KAVL AND KAND
THIS EVENING.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN REGARDS TO THIS AT KAND
THEREFORE WENT WITH A TEMPO...AND PREVAILED FOR 3HRS AT KAVL AS CIGS
ARE ALREADY AT IFR LEVELS.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING THEREBY WARRANTING MVFR LEVEL
CIGS WITH PREVAILING SN BY 08Z AT KAND...10Z AT KGSP/KGMU...11Z AT
KAVL...AND 15Z AT KHKY.  NE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE CAD
WEDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED FLOW AROUND THE
8-12KTS RANGE WITH GUSTING POSSIBLE AT ALL THE SC SITES DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES MIXING INCREASED LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THU...BUT
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  96%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   77%     MED   76%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  93%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  88%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY FEB 12TH...

AVL...2.8 IN 2010
CLT...5.1 IN 1899
GSP...5.0 IN 1895

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...DEO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-501>510-SCZ001>010-122330-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
623 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..THURSDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-122330-
ELBERT-UNION NC-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
623 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...WINTRY MIX LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..THURSDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     SNOW             GSP AIRPORT             34.88N  82.22W
02/11/2014  M1.8 INCH        SPARTANBURG        SC   NWS OFFICE

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     SNOW             CATAWBA                 34.85N  80.91W
02/11/2014  M2.0 INCH        YORK               SC   PUBLIC

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     SNOW             3 W ROCK HILL           34.94N  81.08W
02/11/2014  M2.8 INCH        YORK               SC   COCORAHS

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
921 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     SNOW             PACOLET                 34.90N  81.77W
02/11/2014  M2.5 INCH        SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
922 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     SNOW             WILLIAMSTON             34.62N  82.48W
02/11/2014  M3.3 INCH        ANDERSON           SC   PUBLIC

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
923 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     SNOW             WELLFORD                34.96N  82.10W
02/11/2014  M2.5 INCH        SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

OUTLAW