High Wind in Colorado, April 28, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
340 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE TODAY
AND THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WAS PULLING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER SEEING A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
HAD TEMPORARILY DECREASED AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY...SURFACE HEATING WILL BRING INCREASED MIXING AND THUS A
RESURGENCE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LATEST MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SO HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WATCH THAT WAS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IN NORTHERN WELD AND
MORGAN COUNTIES. AREAS THAT SEE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF THE LOW
LEVELS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

MEANWHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
OROGRAPHICS HAVE KEPT SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES SO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THESE WITH
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES TODAY FOR THE MOST PART. COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES TONIGHT WITH BETTER MOISTURE ROTATING BACK ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES.
HIGH WINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 9 PM BUT
WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER IOWA ON TUESDAY
RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. STRONG FLOW ALOFT
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO AGAIN. STILL COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGH IN THE 50S. IT WILL
DRY OUT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE FOR THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER...BUT STILL COOL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...SO WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS. EXPECT TO SEE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 18-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28-38 KTS
WILL PREVAIL 15Z TIL AROUND 01Z...STRONGEST AT KDEN. WINDS THEN
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 10-18 KTS THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER AFT 18Z TODAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ048>051.

&&

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
518 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

COZ030>051-291130-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
518 AM MDT MON APR 28 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO UNTIL 9 PM
MDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AGAIN TODAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM STERLING TO AKRON WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ELSEWHERE...WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE TODAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
TODAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON THE
PLAINS.

A DEEP AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WILL
KEEP THE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY GUST TO 60 MPH TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE
APPRECIATED.

BARJENBRUCH/MEIER