Winter Storm and Strong Wind in California, May 5 to 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1000 AM PDT MON MAY 5 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. BY LATE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 1615Z /0915 PDT/...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWED THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT AREAS. ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA HIGH COUNTRY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW
BEGINNING BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 06Z WRF AND 12Z GFS FORECAST
YOSEMITE TO RECEIVE A STORM TOTAL OF AROUND 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN
TWO WAVES...THE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THE SECOND
WAVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON
TIOGA PASS WHICH HAS ONLY RECENTLY REOPENED. ALSO...DUE TO THE
LATENESS OF THE STORM...LATE-SEASON WINTER WEATHER CRITERIA ARE IN
EFFECT. RATHER THAN FINESSE WIND AND WINTER PRODUCTS...HAVE OPTED
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WILL COVER THE
PREFRONTAL WIND INITIALLY AND THEN THE TRANSITION TO WIND AND SNOW
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING SNOW TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SEQUOIA
NATIONAL FOREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL MTN OBSCURING IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
WINDS GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE KERN COUNTY
MTNS AND DESERTS AFTER 18Z TODAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 317 AM PDT MON MAY 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POISED OFF THE
PAC NW COAST. MOISTURE IS RATHER SPARSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS OF
THIS WRITING AND SO FAR IS PRODUCING A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS CENTRAL CA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME GOOD MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST THIS MORNING WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT.

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THIS TROUGH
TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS IN RESPONSE TO
A DIGGING 300 MB JET UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC. AS THIS JET
NOSES UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES IT INLAND TONIGHT...
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DYNAMICS
OVER MUCH OF THE SIERRA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE SJ
VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. OFTEN TIMES THESE JET DRIVEN FRONTS
END UP BRINGING MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTHWARD INTO KERN COUNTY
AND EXPECT THIS WILL INDEED BE THE CASE TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SJ VLY OUGHT TO GET RAIN SHADOWED BY THIS SYSTEM
WHERE THERE MIGHT BE SOME BLOWING DUST.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE
BRISK WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BE AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PRECIP MAY FALL AS SNOW AS LOW
AS 5500 FEET WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
ABOVE 7000 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. BY THEN...THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE EXITING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL HAVE ENDED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WIND WILL BE DIMINISHING
IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS CALIFORNIA
REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MODELS BRING A WEAK
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO CA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE
5 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH MUCH COOLER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...ENDING UP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BECOME STATIC FRIDAY BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT. THE WARM UP WILL RESUME SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MONDAY ENDING UP AS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-05       99:1990     57:1921     65:1989     36:1975
KFAT 05-06      100:1987     58:1921     69:1992     41:1975
KFAT 05-07      103:1987     56:1905     69:1989     36:1965

KBFL 05-05      100:1990     61:1932     69:1909     42:1930
KBFL 05-06      104:1987     55:1921     71:1989     42:1988
KBFL 05-07      101:1987     61:1930     70:1989     42:1965
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ097/.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO KINGS CANYON /CAZ096/.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT /CAZ095-098-099/.

&&

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD