Wildfire in California, May 13 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
151 PM PDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS SHIFT HAVE BEEN THE HOT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN SIERRA AND KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND THE POTENTIAL COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND.

WITH STRONG RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA THE SKIES
AROUND THE CWA HAVE BEEN CLOUD FREE. THIS COUPLED WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 588 DECAMETERS AND THE DRY AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN SURGING UPWARD ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS OF 1 PM. 24 HOUR CHANGES RANGED BETWEEN PLUS 6
AND PLUS 10 FOR MANY OF THE LOCATIONS IN THE SJV. AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RISING HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN SURPASS
THE CENTURY MARK IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW. THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING BEGINNING FRIDAY.
I DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS PATTERN AS THERE IS A WEAK OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN MY EXPERIENCE...THE RIDGING IS SLOWER
TO MOVE OUT BY A DAY OR SO WHEN A WEAK OMEGA PATTERN IS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...DAY TO DAY MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION AND AM A BIT RELUCTANT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST AS OF
YET. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT WHETHER WE ARE IN THE MID 90S OR THE
LOWER 100S IT WILL BE HOT INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS HIGH AS HUMIDITIES ARE LOW AND EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY SMALL
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES. LOW HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND ALREADY CURED FUELS WILL MAXIMIZE THE FIRE POTENTIAL
THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE ON THE MOISTURE CONDITIONS AS THE WARNING MAY POSSIBLY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED OUT AT LEAST AN EXTRA DAY. THE SAVING GRACE MAY BE
A RETURN TO MORE ON SHORE FLOW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THIS SCENARIO DOES HINGE ON THE EXACT
SPEED OF THE RIDGE MOVEMENT WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.

NOW THE QUESTION ON COOLING IS NOT A MATTER OF IF BUT A MATTER OF
WHEN. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWING THINGS DOWN
I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EXPECTED COOLING MAY BE PUSHED
BACK A DAY OR SO...AGAIN...DUE TO THE LAG POSSIBLE WITH THIS BLOCKY
PATTERN. BUT...ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ONSHORE FLOW AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTRACT. IT LOOKS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY AND MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-13      103:1976     64:1998     66:1987     43:1951
KFAT 05-14      102:1972     64:1957     66:1996     43:1955
KFAT 05-15      102:1927     60:1953     70:2006     42:1955

KBFL 05-13      107:1976     65:1998     74:1976     34:1907
KBFL 05-14      102:1979     64:1949     72:1976     40:1918
KBFL 05-15      103:1927     60:1953     71:1972     36:1918
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY CAZ095-097.

&&

PUBLIC...ANDERSEN
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...PJ

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD