Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 13 to 14, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
STALL THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...I WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. IN PARTICULAR...I WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OHIO. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY PUSH INTO NORTHERN OHIO ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE
AREAS HARD HIT ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND I WILL
MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING
INTO WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS STILL LOOK REASONABLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ON TOP OF AREAS THAT HAVE HAD HEAVY TO
LOCALLY FLOODING RAIN OVER THE PAST DAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL START TO COOL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT ONLY
AS MUCH AS THE MID 50S IN THE FAR NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST FRINGE OF THE CWA
ON WED. THE ENERGY WITH THE FRONT WILL GET STRETCHED AS THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND ENERGY WITH THE DEVELOPING WAVE
STARTS TO FOCUS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY
LESSENING OF THE RAIN FOR A WHILE ON WED WITH THE SECOND SURGE
STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL THE FRONT BACK WEST WITH THE LOW MOVING
NNE ACROSS THE WEST PART OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
EVENING. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHRA DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH
TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD BUT WILL HOLD OFF AND LET THE CURRENT ONE PLAY OUT
THEN THE SECOND CAN BE ISSUED FOR THE WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT
PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA COULD EVEN BE
SEVERE.

THE THREAT FOR RAIN WON'T END AS THE LOW MOVES OFF NNE OF THE AREA
FRI BECAUSE...AS USUAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL FIND
ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR THE WEEKEND.

COLDER AIR PROGRESSIVELY WRAPS SE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT SO EXPECT FRI AND FRI NIGHT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH
SCT SHRA. SOME THUNDER COULD OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD POCKET OF AIR
ALOFT BUT FOR THE MOST PART MAINLY EXPECTING SHRA. THINK ENOUGH
CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FRI NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BEING ABLE TO
DROP BELOW 40 DEGREES AND CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR TENDER PLANTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER TROF WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ON SATURDAY AND THEN AFTER THAT A THREAT COULD LINGER MAINLY OVER
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG CONCERN IS
WHAT WILL THE CLOUDS DO OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND IF THE CLOUDS DECREASE LOWS COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. THIS SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
AND SOME IFR. A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG UNTIL LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW
AND THAT WILL DETERMINE THE WIND DIRECTION AND STRENGTH. MORE THEN
LIKELY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ON THE LAKE.
FOR THIS EVENING SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED AS
THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTING SATURDAY
AND WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-150130-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY TONIGHT CAUSING AREAS OF ISOLATED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-150130-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
929 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GARNET