Wildfire in California, July 11 to 19, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
122 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SUNNDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER A DRYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SOME ALTOCUMULUS HAS
REMAINED OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AFTER THIS MORNINGS MARINE PUSH. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...ACTUALLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR A CHANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

PROGS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH MOST OF THE VALLEY/DESERT ABOVE 105 DEG F.

THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY AND PROGS
ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB. EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOUNTAIN/DESERT AREAS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
EVEN DRIFT INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO ALSO LOWER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT NIGHTS WILL BE WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST THRU 03Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-11      110:1961     82:1888     78:2002     52:1974
KFAT 07-12      109:2012     82:1995     81:1999     54:1965
KFAT 07-13      110:1983     84:1932     83:1999     55:1903

KBFL 07-11      110:1961     83:1936     79:2002     51:1906
KBFL 07-12      113:1913     81:1995     80:1999     48:1914
KBFL 07-13      111:1908     87:1995     85:1999     46:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...MENDENHALL
AVN/FW...OCHS/MENDENHALL
PREV DISCUSSION...MENDENHALL
SYNOPSIS...MENDENHALL

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
537 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CAZ096-097-121245-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
537 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

...THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

* TIMING: THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
  FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK...SEQUOIA NATIONAL
  PARK...KINGS CANYON...JOHNSONDALE...CAMP NELSON AND LOCATIONS
  ALONG THE CREST.

* IMPACTS:

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ095-098-099-121245-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
537 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT.

...THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

* TIMING: THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
  FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: EDWARDS AFB...ROSAMOND...MOJAVE...TEHACHAPI...
  PIUTE...INYOKERN

* IMPACTS: CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
  RAIN. POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING NEAR FIRE BURN SCAR AREAS AND IN
  THE DESERT NEAR RIDGECREST.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ092-094-121245-
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
537 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

...THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

* TIMING: TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ARVIN...BAKERSFIELD...PORTERVILLE...FOUNTAIN
  SPRINGS...SPRINGVILLE

* IMPACTS: CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
  RAIN.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JDB